Formula 1: Has Daniel Ricciardo’s gamble paid off?

Daniel Ricciardo hasn’t won since joining Renault, but his 2020 Formula 1 season shows why his gamble to leave Red Bull Racing has paid off.

It took Daniel Ricciardo 32 races to find the podium as a Renault driver, but once he finally did it, he recorded two podium finishes in a three-race span. But with four races to go in the 2020 Formula 1 season, he probably isn’t going to deliver the team their first victory since 2008.

In fact, before the year began, he signed a contract to drive for McLaren beginning in 2021 as the replacement for the Ferrari-bound Carlos Sainz Jr.

Ricciardo signed a two-year deal with Renault back in 2018, as he had made the decision to depart from Red Bull, where he had won seven races, after five seasons.

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The move was questioned by many, and the fact that Renault have not taken the step forward to become a serious contender has cast many a doubt over the Honey Badger’s decision.

After all, he did already sign with McLaren, which are set to move from Renault engines to Mercedes engines, for next year, even without giving Renault a chance to showcase their performance in 2020. But his move from Red Bull to Renault has actually paid off, and the 2020 season, specifically the last several race weekends, has illustrated it.

This move has allowed the 31-year-old Australian to showcase what he is truly capable of competing for a mid-pack Formula 1 team, rather than being constantly sidelined with mechanical issues — even in a faster car — and he has shown that he can beat anybody.

Prior to his ninth place finish at Algarve International Circuit and subsequent podium effort at Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari, Ricciardo finished no worse than sixth place in the last five races.

No other driver in the 20-driver field could make that claim, and during that five-race span, his average finish was 4.4, which ranked second only to Lewis Hamilton, who is on pace to win a seventh overall and fourth consecutive world championship this year, at 2.6. In the last seven races, Ricciardo’s average finish of 4.86 ranks behind only Hamilton’s of 2.14.

In his final season at Red Bull, only once did he go more than three straight races without a retirement; forget five straight top six finishes. Following a 2017 season that saw him finish in fifth place in the driver standings with only 14 finishes in 20 races, he only finished 13 of 21 races en route to a sixth place finish in the standings in 2018.

It was time for a change in Daniel Ricciardo’s Formula 1 career.

While the 2019 season didn’t produce much for him with just one top five finish in 21 races and a ninth place finish in the driver standings, his worst result since he finished in 13th for Toro Rosso in 2013, the 2020 season has.

Through 13 races this season, he has just one DNF, and his results have already netted him far more points this season than he did throughout all of last season.

Additionally, Ricciardo’s recent surge, coupled with his early season success which included a fourth place finish in the second race at Silverstone Circuit, a finish which was then tied for his best result as a Renault driver, has vaulted him up to fourth in the driver standings behind only the “big three” of Mercedes teammates Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas and former teammate Max Verstappen, the trio that have combined to win 12 races so far in 2020 and have been in the top three seemingly every race weekend at some point.

If not for a late tire issue in the first race at Silverstone Circuit, he would probably have three podium finishes this year, which is actually one more than he had in 2018 with Red Bull — and in eight fewer races.

He is 10 points clear of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (95 to 85) for fifth place in the standings and a whopping 31 points clear of Alexander Albon (95 to 64), the man driving the car he vacated by leaving Red Bull after 2018.

No driver outside of Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull has finished in the top five in the driver standings since Bottas, then driving for Williams, finished in fifth place in 2015. No driver outside of Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull has finished in the top four in the standings since Bottas finished in fourth in 2014.

Ricciardo is on pace to end both droughts in 2020 with what would be his best finish in the standings since he finished in third in 2016 driving what was actually a reliable Red Bull car, one which allowed him to cross the finish line in each of the 21 races on the schedule, 20 times on the lead lap.

While he won’t continue with Renault in 2021, he has proven he made the right move at the right time, and his move to McLaren may just work out even better.