IndyCar: Threats on the horizon for the ‘Big 3’?

Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing, and Josef Newgarden, Team Penske, IndyCar (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing, and Josef Newgarden, Team Penske, IndyCar (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /
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Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport have dominated the IndyCar Series for nearly two decades. Will 2021 end that reign?

Before Takuma Sato won the 2020 Indianapolis 500 after a late pass on Scott Dixon, it had been seven years since an IndyCar team other than Team Penske or Andretti Autosport won the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing”.

Sato’s win was Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing’s second Indy 500 win overall and first since 2004. Since 2004, there had only been two Indy 500 races won by a team other than Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing or Andretti Autosport.

Dan Wheldon won the 2011 race driving for Bryan Herta Autosport, although interestingly enough, Bryan Herta is now a co-owner of one of Michael Andretti’s entries, and the 2021 season will be the sixth consecutive season for which that can be said.

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Former Andretti Autosport driver Tony Kanaan won the 2013 race driving for KV Racing Technology, ahead of a 2-3-4 sweep of disappointed Andretti Autosport drivers.

As dominant as that sounds, there have been kinks in the armor over the years, as we saw last season with Sato. In fact, Dixon’s second place finish in the race was the only top four finish for any one of the “Big 3”, as Sato’s teammate, Graham Rahal, finished in third place ahead of their new teammate, then-Dale Coyne Racing with Vasser-Sullivan driver Santino Ferrucci, in fourth.

But as far as winning the whole IndyCar championship is concerned, the “Big 3” have had a lock on that for nearly two whole decades.

The last time a team other than Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing or Andretti Autosport win a title was back in 2002, when Sam Hornish Jr. won his second consecutive championship driving for Panther Racing. He went on to win another title with Team Penske in 2006 anyway.

In 2001, none of those three teams competed full-time in the Indy Racing League. In 2002, among those three, only Team Penske competed full-time.

So since 2003, in the 18 seasons during which all three teams have competed full-time, no championship has ever been won by another team.

Could this streak finally end in 2021?

These three powerhouse teams are all set to run four full-time entries with 13 total drivers (11 full-timers), differing from last year when Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing both ran three full-time entries and Andretti Autosport ran five, and they house many of the championship favorites.

The Chevrolet-powered Team Penske team have two-time champion Josef Newgarden, 2014 champion Will Power, 2016 champion Simon Pagenaud and rookie Scott McLaughlin, a three-time Supercars champion.

The Honda-powered Chip Ganassi Racing team have six-time and reigning champion Scott Dixon along with full-timers Marcus Ericsson and Alex Palou, plus 2004 champion Tony Kanaan and seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson splitting a fourth entry.

Finally, the Honda-powered Andretti Autosport team have 2012 champion Ryan Hunter-Reay, Alexander Rossi, Colton Herta and James Hinchcliffe.

So who could pose a threat?

There are several possibilities, the first of which being Arrow McLaren SP. Despite not winning a race in 2020, they established themselves as true contenders, with Pato O’Ward finishing in fourth place in the championship standings in his first season as a full-time driver.

O’Ward is set to return for year number two, and he is set to be joined by former Chip Ganassi Racing driver Felix Rosenqvist, who never truly capitalized on his potential with Chip Ganassi’s team.

Last year, O’Ward became the first Chevrolet driver to finish ahead of a Team Penske driver in the standings since 2016. He became the first Chevrolet driver to finish ahead of two Team Penske drivers in the standings since 2015, when Dixon won the championship driving a Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing.

Chevrolet teams are still looking for their first non-Team Penske win since 2016, as Chevrolet teams have won 33 of the last 66 races, and Team Penske drivers have still been responsible for all 33 of those victories.

But the odds that it doesn’t come in 2021 are small.

Then there is Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which took a big step forward last season after several years of clearly trailing the “Big 3”. Not since Rahal’s fourth place finish in the 2015 standings had the team looked as good as they did in 2020, and in 2015, they were still just a one-car team.

Both Rahal and Sato finished in the top seven in the standings in their third consecutive season as teammates last year. Only one other team placed two drivers in the top seven, with that being Team Penske. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing were one of only four teams to win a race in 2020. Only Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing won more.

Believe it or not, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing have actually been victorious for six consecutive seasons. You could make a case that they’re already in the “Big 4” as the clear fourth best team.

But they’re looking for more than solid results, and after last year, they’re charging hard for it.

Dale Coyne Racing owner Dale Coyne even made a comment in a recent press conference that he believes it is his team that should be considered the fourth best in the sport behind the “Big 3”, and there have definitely been times, specifically since the start of the 2017 season, when that statement may not seem far-fetched.

Ed Jones is set to run full-time in the #18 Honda through a partnership with Vasser-Sullivan while Romain Grosjean and Pietro Fittipaldi are set to split a second entry, the #51 Honda, through a partnership with Rick Ware Racing.

As silly as it may sound, A.J. Foyt Enterprises could be in a solid position for improvement in 2021 after their great finish to the 2020 season. Fourth best team? Maybe not. Ability to compete with the “Big 3” from time to time? Absolutely.

The perennial “backmarker” team signed Sebastien Bourdais to a full-time deal for the 2021 season. The last time a team did that was in 2017 when Dale Coyne Racing did it, and they immediately became a contender after several years of struggling.

Let’s not sleep on Ed Carpenter Racing or Meyer Shank Racing, either. Rinus VeeKay looks poised to break out in his second season driving for the former, and the latter’s technical alliance with Andretti Autosport has already played to the advantage of Jack Harvey.

Even with only three championship-winning teams in the last 18 years, IndyCar is chock full of parity. That parity may reach a new level in 2021 with all the talented drivers and teams throughout the field.

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The season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, April 18 with the Honda Grand Prix of Alabama presented by AmFirst, which is set to be broadcast live on NBC from Barber Motorsports Park beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.