IndyCar: 2021 season the toughest ever to predict?

By Asher Fair | Apr 17, 2021

Will Power, Team Penske, Indy 500, IndyCar - Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports /

The 2021 IndyCar field is absolutely stacked from top to bottom, and it is nearly impossible to pick which drivers are going to rise above the rest.

Following an offseason that was extended due to the original season opener on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida being postponed from Sunday, March 7 to Sunday, April 25, the 2021 IndyCar season is finally scheduled to get underway this Sunday, April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park with the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama presented by AmFirst.

The 2021 schedule consists of 17 races at 14 different venues, with one venue set to host races at two different tracks, over 15 race weekends.

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By comparison, last year’s schedule consisted of 17 races at 16 different venues, with one hosting races at two different tracks, over 16 race weekends, but it was altered due to the coronavirus pandemic so that it featured only 14 races at seven different venues, again with one hosting races at two different tracks, over nine race weekends.

And this year’s season has a chance to be one of the most competitive ever.

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I usually do preseason power rankings for IndyCar. I simply couldn’t this year, because I struggled to rank most drivers outside of the top 10. It would have been a disaster to try to justify.

This could very well be the year that the “Big 3” of Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport are threatened by some of the, for lack of a better phrase, perennial mid-pack teams.

Arrow McLaren SP and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing both had phenomenal seasons last year, and don’t sleep on A.J. Foyt Enterprises as far as making some pretty big strides this year.

Dale Coyne Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing can always be counted on to compete at the front in several races as well, and Meyer Shank Racing had a quietly productive first full season in the sport last year that they will look to build on.

We have seen just one five-win season by an individual driver in the last 10 seasons, that being Simon Pagenaud’s five-wins season in 2016.

If we get another one this year, put whoever pulls it off in the discussion for the greatest IndyCar driver of all-time. I don’t care who it is. I’m serious.

So instead of doing power rankings for a field that can practically be covered by one medium-sized blanket, I’m just going to put out this quick standings prediction.

For the sake of looking back and either (a) saying “I told you so” or (b) doing like I do after almost every NCAA March Madness tournament and seeing just how terrible my predictions were, here are my final standings predictions for the 2021 IndyCar season among the 21 drivers (20 unless Conor Daly joins Carlin for the three non-Indy 500 oval races, which he is expected to) who are set to run the full 17-race schedule.

Josef Newgarden – Team Penske
Alexander Rossi – Andretti Autosport
Colton Herta – Andretti Autosport
Scott Dixon – Chip Ganassi Racing
Pato O’Ward – Arrow McLaren SP
Will Power – Team Penske
Graham Rahal – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
Felix Rosenqvist – Arrow McLaren SP
Ryan Hunter-Reay – Andretti Autosport
Simon Pagenaud – Team Penske
James Hinchcliffe – Andretti Steinbrenner Autosport
Takuma Sato – Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
Alex Palou – Chip Ganassi Racing
Scott McLaughlin – Team Penske
Rinus VeeKay – Ed Carpenter Racing
Jack Harvey – Meyer Shank Racing
Sebastien Bourdais – A.J. Foyt Enterprises
Marcus Ericsson – Chip Ganassi Racing
Ed Jones – Dale Coyne Racing with Vasser-Sullivan
Conor Daly – Ed Carpenter Racing/Carlin (possible)
Dalton Kellett – A.J. Foyt Enterprises

Instead of power rankings, here’s a quick synopsis:

I can’t see Scott Dixon, a six-time champion, repeating as champion for the first time ever since he hasn’t done it so far, and Josef Newgarden is 2 for 2 when driving the #2 Chevrolet. He also beat Dixon in the final six races of the 2020 season to almost claw back from a 117-point deficit and win the title. He is poised to become a three-time champion.

Alexander Rossi is poised to bounce back from a horrendous 2020 season in which he still managed to finish in ninth place in the standings somehow, while Colton Herta and Pato O’Ward are poised to continue the momentum they built up during their first seasons with their respective teams last year, reigniting their 2018 Indy Lights rivalry.

Of course, Will Power will probably finish in the top five in the championship standings like he always does (11 for 11 with Team Penske), but I’m giving the youngsters the slight advantage here ahead of the 2014 champion.

As for the rest of the field, it’s anybody’s guess. There were really only two or three drivers who I did not struggle to place outside of the top 10.

Scott McLaughlin at 14? Sebastien Bourdais at 17? Rinus VeeKay, Jack Harvey and Marcus Ericsson all regressing from solid first full seasons with their respective teams? Really? I laugh at those rankings in particular, but at the same time, you could easily make a case for a dozen or even more other drivers ahead of each of them.

It’s making a case against anybody that is a struggle this year. Try it sometime.

In all fairness, I have a 1 in 51 quintillion chance of getting all 21 of these positions correct. Picking a perfect March Madness bracket is roughly five and a half times easier at 1 in 9.22 quintillion.

So just keep that in mind next year when someone wins your 33-person bracket pool with a championship game of #13 Ohio vs. #15 Oral Roberts (like somebody in mine did this year…).

Anyway, in terms of entrant points, the standings may look slightly different. The #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet, the #48 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda, the #51 Dale Coyne Racing with Rick Ware Racing Honda and the #59 Carlin Chevrolet are all set to run full-time.

But there are 24, not 25, full-time entries. If Daly does land a three-race Carlin deal, he would be set to split time in the #20 Chevrolet and the #59 Chevrolet. Ed Carpenter is set to compete in the oval races behind the wheel of the former while Max Chilton is set to compete in the road and street course races behind the wheel of the latter.

Jimmie Johnson is set to drive the #48 Honda in the road and street course races while Tony Kanaan is set to drive it in the oval races, and Romain Grosjean is set to drive the #51 Honda in the road and street course races while Pietro Fittipaldi is set to drive it in the oval races.

The #20 Chevrolet should finish in the top 15 in entrant points, while the #59 Chevrolet will likely finish towards the back, likely outside of the top 20 — perhaps even last.

The #48 Honda should challenge for a spot in the top 10, although somewhere in the 12th to 14th range seems about right. The #51 Honda will likely finish just behind, perhaps just outside of the top 15.

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The 2021 IndyCar season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, April 18 at Barber Motorsports Park with the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama presented by AmFirst. NBC is set to broadcast this race live beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. Who will be crowned champion by the time the checkered flag flies in the season finale on the streets of Long Beach, California on Saturday, September 26?