NASCAR: The only driver in the playoffs so far in 2021

Through 11 races on the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, there is still only one driver who has technically clinched a playoff spot.

And if you want to get really technical, even that driver hasn’t yet clinched, considering there is no guarantee that anybody will finish the 26-race NASCAR Cup Series regular season in the top 30 in the point standings.

Kansas Speedway produced the 10th different winner through 11 races on the 2021 schedule when Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch took the checkered flag ahead of Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, who also hasn’t seen victory lane in 2021, in second place.

Logic would tell you that Busch became the 10th driver to secure a playoff spot. But mathematically speaking, that isn’t true, and based on how this season has gone, there’s a chance it won’t become true.

It’s only a slight chance, but it’s a chance that needs to be acknowledged as the Cup Series continues to see new faces in victory lane.

The current playoff format was introduced ahead of the 2014 season. A total of 16 drivers advance to the four-round, 10-race postseason, and there have never been regular season winners than playoff spots. As such, the format has often been seen as a “win and in” format.

But really, the format awards the 16 playoff spots as follows:

• Regular season points champion
• Next 15 drivers highest in wins
  • If there are more than 15 other winners, the tiebreaker among one-race winners is points
  • If there are fewer than 15 other winners, the tiebreaker among non-winners is points

Every season from 2014 to 2020 has seen the final playoff spots settled by points among the non-winners.

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But with 10 winners already and 15 regular season races remaining on the schedule, including five road course races and a superspeedway race, it very well could come down to a points tiebreaker among one-race winners this year.

So the only driver who has technically secured himself a playoff spot is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., who won the season’s fifth and eight races at Phoenix Raceway and Martinsville Speedway, respectively.

With two wins, there is no mathematical way that he can rank outside of the top 15 in regular season wins.

But even he *technically* isn’t locked into the playoffs, since he could mathematically fall out of the top 30 in the point standings.

However, we’re going to assume that doesn’t happen.

There are only 32 drivers competing full-time for points, and the 31st and 32nd place drivers are StarCom Racing’s Quin Houff with 54 points and Rick Ware Racing’s Josh Bilicki with 47. Those totals are good for averages of 4.91 and 4.27 points per race. Those averages over a 26-race span translate to roughly 128 and 111 points. Neither driver has finished a race in the top 22 yet this year.

Truex, meanwhile, sits in second place in points with 394 already.

Who will be the second driver to become a two-time race winner in the 2021 season and effectively secure a playoff berth? The 12th race on the schedule is the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway, a track where all three races last season were won by drivers who are winless so far this year. This race is set to be broadcast live on Fox beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET this afternoon.