NASCAR: Pros and cons of Brad Keselowski’s projected move
2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski could be heading to Roush Fenway Racing in 2022. But with every major life decision, there are pros and cons.
On Tuesday, Motorsport’s Jim Utter reported that 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski has received an offer to become an owner/driver for Roush Fenway Racing in 2022. Keselowski would take over behind the wheel of the #6 Ford, which is currently driven by Ryan Newman.
Keselowski is in his 12th season as a full-time driver for Team Penske. The combination has had immense success. Keselowski won the 2012 title and has secured 34 of his 35 wins with the team.
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Keselowski is on a one-year deal after signing a contract extension last August. The lack of a multi-year contract had some people wondering if Keselowski could be on the move in 2022. It appears that could be likely.
Fox Sports journalist Bob Pockrass reported Tuesday evening that he expects Keselowski to accept Roush Fenway Racing’s offer to join their team.
From people I've talked to and texted, I do expect Brad Keselowski going to Roush Fenway as a driver/co-owner to happen (Motorsport .com reported on the deal earlier today). Analyzing Keselowksi’s likely move on the whys & what happens next. @NASCARONFOX https://t.co/0MONYXCLH2
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) May 18, 2021
So what could sway Keselowski into leaving Team Penske for Roush Fenway Racing? Let’s look at the pros.
Becoming an owner in the Cup Series is something that Keselowski has explored. He owned his own Truck Series team, Brad Keselowski Racing, from 2008 to 2017. The team had 11 wins and finished runner-up in the championship standings twice.
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This opportunity at Roush Fenway Racing would give him a head start in becoming a future owner in the sport. It would give him the opportunity to see what goes into being an owner, even if it’s just a small percentage, to prepare him to become a majority owner when his racing career is complete.
Another big thing to consider here is Keselowski’s age. He turned 37 in February, so realistically, he probably only has about five more years of competitive racing.
The key here is the fact that Team Penske have a future Cup Series driver in the Xfinity Series. Austin Cindric is slated to drive for Wood Brothers Racing, which have a technical alliance with Roger Penske’s team, in 2022 to replace Matt DiBenedetto.
But if Cindric has some success in his first two or three years in the Cup Series, Team Penske will undoubtedly want to put him in one of their cars. Joey Logano, 30, and Ryan Blaney, 27, both likely have at least 10 more years of competitive racing in them. That leaves Keselowski as the odd man out if Cindric is promoted.
Roush Fenway Racing currently do not operate an Xfinity Series team. So with no real prospects in sight, Keselowski wouldn’t have to worry about job security if he wants to race into his 40s.
Cons
The biggest downside to Keselowski leaving Team Penske would be the downgrade in car performance. Since Keselowski and Logano teamed up in 2013, Team Penske have been one of the best teams in NASCAR. Since Keselowski’s first season in the #2 car in 2011, he has finished outside the top 10 in points just twice. We already mentioned his championship in 2012, and he also finished runner-up last season to Chase Elliott.
In that same span, the worst a Team Penske driver has finished in the standings is Logano in 2017, when he finished in 17th place. That season was an outlier for Logano, however. He won a race early in the season at Richmond Raceway, but that win was encumbered due to a rear suspension issue. The #22 team never recovered and missed the playoffs.
Roush Fenway Racing were one of the top teams in the mid to late 2000s, but that all changed after they lost Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. Since 2015, they have just two wins and two playoff appearances. In their defense, drivers such as Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Trevor Bayne, Ryan Newman and Chris Buescher are nowhere near as talented as Kenseth and Edwards were in their prime.
It seems like Roush Fenway Racing are stuck finishing around 20th to 23rd place in the standings with their drivers. Buescher, however, is having the best season of his career this year and currently sits in 14th in points, so maybe there’s hope.
In addition to the downgrade in equipment, Keselowski would be joining a whole new team. That would mean a different crew chief, different pit crew, etc. They could take some time to gel together. We already noted that Keselowski is 37 years old. The longer it takes to become championship contenders, the closer he will be to retirement.
While it’s a huge decision for Keselowski himself, it will certainly affect other drivers as well. Where will Newman go? Will Cindric jump right into the #2 Ford, or will DiBenedetto finally get a ride with a top-tier team?
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It’s certainly a decision that could have rippling effects throughout the Cup Series. Be on the lookout for Keselowski’s decision over the next few months.