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Indy 500: Full odds, breakdown ahead of Carb Day

By Asher Fair

Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing, Indy 500, IndyCar
Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing, Indy 500, IndyCar /
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Who are the favorites and who are some of the potential value picks for this Sunday’s 105th running of the Indy 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway?

The Carb Day practice session ahead of the 105th running of the Indy 500 is scheduled to take place from 11:00 a.m. ET to 1:00 p.m. ET at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

After that, the field of 33 cars won’t be on-track until the start of Sunday afternoon’s 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) oval in Speedway, Indiana.

Who are the favorites to win the biggest IndyCar race of the year, and who are some of the underdogs?

Take a look at the odds leading up to the 2021 edition of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing”.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Example: +350 means a $100 bet wins $350 ($450 total payout).

Driver: Odds
Scott Dixon: +350
Colton Herta: +700
Pato O’Ward: +1100
Alexander Rossi: +1400
Alex Palou: +1400
Rinus VeeKay: +1400
Josef Newgarden: +1500
Tony Kanaan: +1600
Graham Rahal: +1800
Takuma Sato: +2000
Marcus Ericsson: +2200
Ed Carpenter: +2200
Will Power: +2500
Simon Pagenaud: +2500
Ryan Hunter-Reay: +2500
Helio Castroneves: +2800
Scott McLaughlin: +3300
Juan Pablo Montoya: +3300
Felix Rosenqvist: +5000
Santino Ferrucci: +5000
Marco Andretti: +5000
Conor Daly: +5000
James Hinchcliffe: +6600
Jack Harvey: +6600
Ed Jones: +6600
Sebastien Bourdais: +10000
Sage Karam: +10000
Stefan Wilson: +15000
Pietro Fittipaldi: +15000
J.R. Hildebrand: +20000
Max Chilton: +50000
Simona de Silvestro: +50000
Dalton Kellett: +50000

Implied chance vs. actual chance

The odds indicate Dixon has a 22.22% implied chance to win the race. However, as is always the case in sports betting, the implied chances for all drivers add up to over 100%, to practically ensure no losses for the books. In this case, they add up to 131.50%, so Dixon’s actual chance of winning, based on his odds, is 16.90%.

More from IndyCar

With 33 cars in the field, logic would tell you that all 33 have a 3.03% chance to win. Using the odds themselves, you find that 16 drivers have implied chances of over 3.03%. However, only 12 drivers have an actual chance exceeding that amount.

You can decide for yourself who you’re willing to bet on, given the risks. But this is an extremely important point to consider when making a selection, especially if you’re looking to place a bet on a driver with lesser odds — or perhaps even a few drivers with lesser odds who you believe could pull through.

Best bets for an underdog

As far as potential upset winners are concerned, two in particular stand out: Ed Jones and Santino Ferrucci. Jones, driving for Dale Coyne Racing with Vasser-Sullivan, is listed at +6600, implying a 1.49% chance to win. But his actual chance is effectively 1.14%.

For a driver who finished in third place in his rookie season driving for Dale Coyne Racing in 2017 after starting in 11th, he may be a driver to keep your eye on, as 1.14% seems quite low. He is set to start in 11th again this year, so he could be a good value pick.

Speaking of Dale Coyne Racing, take a look at Ferrucci. No, he’s not with Dale Coyne’s team this year, but he finished in seventh and fourth place in his first two Indy 500 races with the team in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Now he drives for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which won the race last year and fielded two of the three cars he finished behind. At +5000, his implied chance to win is 1.96%, but his actual chance to win is effectively 1.49% — pretty low for a guy who has historically been fast on ovals and has a 5.50 average finish at the Brickyard.

Here’s a list of three other drivers who may not be getting enough respect, plus three whose odds might not be worth betting on.

Odds too low

  • Helio Castroneves: +2800
    • He is a three-time winner who advanced to the Fast Nine Shootout in his first attempt with his new team, and yet he only has the 16th best odds?
  • Pietro Fittipaldi: +15000
    • He is set to start in 13th place, and Dale Coyne Racing rookies have finished in third and seventh place in recent years. Should have much better than 29th best odds. And put some respect on that last name.
  • J.R. Hildebrand: +20000
    • For a guy who should’ve won the race in 2011 and has always been solid at Indy ever since, the fact that his odds are better than only the clear bottom three drivers is a bit surprising.

Odds too high

  • Scott Dixon: +350
    • I get it; he dominated last year, he is the clear favorite again this year, and he’s on the pole. But polesitters have just one win in the last 11 years, and when one driver is the overwhelming favorite in an extremely competitive 500-mile race with 33 drivers, it doesn’t tend to go his way. In this era of IndyCar racing, anything higher than +600 or so seems excessive.
  • Takuma Sato: +2000
    • The reigning winner could easily be listed as having odds that are too low, given the fact that he is now a two-time winner and yet his odds only rank 10th best. But there’s a reason nobody has gone back-to-back since Helio Castroneves did it in 2001 and 2002. Actually, there are quite a few.
  • Will Power: +2500
    • He may be able to compete for a decent finish after barely getting into the race, but 32nd to first place? Not worth it, considering his odds rank all the way up at 13th best.

Next. Top 25 IndyCar drivers of all-time. dark

Tune in to NBC at 11:00 a.m. ET this Sunday, May 30 for the live broadcast of the 105th running of the Indy 500 from Indianapolis Motor Speedway.