NASCAR: Could one race winner still be in trouble?

In the off chance that more than 16 drivers end up winning a 2021 NASCAR Cup Series regular season race, there is still one winner who isn’t completely safe.

Just three of the first 14 races of the NASCAR Cup Series season resulted in a driver securing a win other than his first of the year. Since then, all six races that have been contested have resulted in a driver securing either his second, third or fourth win of 2021, and we are still stuck on 11 winners.

But with six races remaining in the regular season, there is still an off chance that we get more than 16 different winners before the playoffs.

So due to the nature of the playoff system, there have technically only been five drivers who have punched their tickets to the postseason, despite the fact that there have been 11 winners this season.

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Those five drivers are the five drivers with at least two wins: Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson (four), Alex Bowman (three) and Chase Elliott (two) and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Martin Truex Jr. (three) and Kyle Busch (two).

The playoff system has long been referred to as a “win and in” system, since that is how it has functioned in the past, but at its core, it really isn’t. The 16 playoff spots go to the regular season champion and the 15 drivers with the most wins. If there are more winners than playoff spots, the tiebreaker is points.

These five drivers are the only drivers guaranteed to finish the 26-race regular season in the top 15 in the wins category, as only 13 drivers can win more than one race, at most.

It hasn’t happened before, but more than 16 winners is a possibility. There is still a new road course race and a superspeedway race left on this year’s regular season schedule, and the two drivers who combined to win 16 of last year’s 36 races, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, still haven’t yet won in 2021.

That alone could take us to 15 different winners, without factoring in two other remaining races on this year’s regular season schedule.

No, it’s not likely, but if it does happen, there is one winner among the six one-race winners so far this season who stands out as being in a vulnerable position.

That driver is the only race winner who doesn’t driver for a powerhouse team in Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske, and he unsurprisingly already finds himself down in 17th place in the point standings despite winning the season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway.

That driver is Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell.

Winning the Daytona 500 is going to be the highlight of McDowell’s 2021 Cup Series season no matter what else happens, and nothing can take that away from him.

However, it would be an added bonus if he is actually able to solidify his first career playoff spot and get Bob Jenkins’s team back to the postseason for the first time since 2016.

That is by no means a guarantee, and there is no driver in the field who is rooting harder for repeat winners than McDowell is, and he has made note of that. Without a doubt, the other five one-race winners so far this season should finish ahead of him in points; all currently sit inside the top 15.

So if we do see more winners than playoff spots, at least one of them, depending on how many end up finding victory lane, is going to need to be below McDowell in the point standings in order for him to advance to the postseason.

Make no mistake about it; things are looking pretty good for the 36-year-old Glendale, Arizona native. But until there is no possible way for him to drop out of the playoff picture, he is the odd man out as far as not being 100% safe.

Fortunately for him, he’s almost there.

The next race on the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart, which is scheduled to take place on Sunday, July 11. This race is set to be broadcast live on NBC Sports Network from Atlanta Motor Speedway beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET.