NASCAR: The 2021 championship odds may surprise you

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 field is set following this past Sunday afternoon’s race at Martinsville Speedway.

The group of four drivers who are set to compete for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship in this Sunday afternoon’s season finale at Phoenix Raceway was solidified in this past Sunday afternoon’s race at Martinsville Speedway.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson had already locked himself into the winner-take-all Championship 4 with wins in the first two races of the round of 8 at Texas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway.

Teammate and reigning champion Chase Elliott joined him by locking himself in on points at the end of stage two at Martinsville Speedway. The final two spots were both clinched on points as well, with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. locking themselves in.

So who will win the championship in Sunday’s 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) oval in Avondale, Arizona?

Here are the odds leading up to this Sunday afternoon’s Championship 4 season finale at Phoenix Raceway, courtesy of WynnBET.

Kyle Larson: +165

Larson is the only one of the Championship 4 drivers who does not have a win at Phoenix Raceway, and given the fact that the first seven Championship 4s have seen the champion win the race as well as the fact that two of the last three have seen top four sweeps by the Championship 4, that probably needs to change.

But Larson, who has never been in a Championship 4, has been strong at Phoenix Raceway, and he has had a historic season. With nine wins and more laps led than anybody ever in a single season during the 36-race era, he has justified himself as the favorite.

The only real questionable aspect here is why he moved from +150 to +175 after winning at Kansas Speedway but then came back to +165 after the Championship 4 field was set; we all knew that he was locked in anyway, so hopefully you got in when his odds inexplicable moved from +150 to +175 (or several weeks prior).

Chase Elliott: +250

Elliott is set to make his second Championship 4 appearance, and he is looking to make it two for two. Like Larson this year, Elliott entered last year without a win at Phoenix Raceway, and he changed that to win the title.

Make your pick now on WynnBET.

While the statistics don’t show it, the 2021 season has silently been arguably the strongest overall year for the driver the #9 Chevrolet. His wins and laps led totals simply don’t match up to his numbers from last year because he has spent so much time running (and finishing) second to Larson.

Look at Martinsville Speedway alone; last year, he was in a must-win situation in the round of 8 finale. This year, he locked in on points before the race even ended, despite lacking a single playoff race win. And now he can say what he has never been able to say before: that he has been in this position before.

Denny Hamlin: +300

Hamlin is 0 for 4 when entering the season finale with a chance to win the championship, including 0 for 3 in the Championship 4 era and 0 for 2 in the last two seasons (both fourth place finishes among the four contenders).

He does have a strong history at Phoenix Raceway with two wins, including one in November 2019 that locked him into the Championship 4 when the track was still in the round of 8 and Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the title decider.

After the events of this past Sunday, is Hamlin mentally focused enough to finally get the job done? He certainly appears motivated.

Martin Truex Jr.: +425

These odds are a little bit puzzling. Truex won the race at Phoenix Raceway back in March, yet he is considered the biggest underdog to win the title. This is despite the fact that he is also the only former champion other than Elliott in the Championship 4, having won the title in 2017.

That win is his only win at Phoenix Raceway in 31 starts, but look at his recent history in terms of ending long win droughts at some of the shorter race tracks (750-horsepower, low downforce tracks, specifically) on the schedule.

At Richmond Raceway, he started 0 for 26. He has since gone 3 for 5, including a win in this year’s playoffs. At Martinsville Speedway, he started 0 for 27. He has since gone 3 for 5, including a win in April. In both cases, his second win immediately followed his first. Notably, all four of his wins this season have come with the 750-horsepower, low downforce package.

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