When the NASCAR Cup Series' Next Gen car was first introduced in 2022, nobody knew what to expect. And by the end of that season, we still didn't really know what was going on.
Between the new car and the return of full race weekends after two years of limited practice and qualifying, the shift in the hierarchy among race teams was seismic. There were 19 different drivers for nine different organizations who found victory lane, and the vast majority of them won purely on speed.
Trackhouse Racing was the story all year, led by Ross Chastain's shocking breakout. Erik Jones and Legacy Motor Club were another pleasant surprise. Richard Childress Racing, led by Tyler Reddick, was all the way back. Every week, it felt like everyone had a chance.
Fast forward four years later, and it must be said that this is no longer even remotely the case.
The top teams have pulled away again with the Next Gen car, while everybody else is lost for answers
The start of the 2026 Cup Series season has been historic because Tyler Reddick has won five of nine races. But the sudden collapse in parity goes well beyond that, and it's becoming a major concern.
If you looked up at the running order at any point during Sunday's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, it was the same four organizations – Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, and RFK Racing – occupying the top dozen positions. In the point standings, add Team Penske and Spire Motorsports to that list, and there are all 16 of your current Chase drivers.
It's beginning to feel like the late 2010s again. At that point in time, the top of the grid was monopolized by Gibbs, Penske, Hendrick, and Stewart-Haas Racing, with only Kyle Larson in his Chip Ganassi Racing days consistently challenging them.
Substitute 23XI for SHR, and add RFK, which would be competing for wins regularly if it had better drivers, to the fold, and that's about right back to where we are. Spire's Carson Hocevar can be considered the closest thing to a current version of Larson at Ganassi.
As for everybody else, it's tough luck. Trackhouse hasn't been the same ever since the infamous Darlington Raceway incident in 2023, and the organization somehow manages to dig a new rock bottom every week.
RCR is likewise a mess. Legacy looked to be taking steps forward a year ago but has stagnated. Other teams that improved in the early Next Gen years, such as Kaulig Racing and Front Row Motorsports, have once again regressed.
It always should've been anticipated that the richest teams would pull away from the field again after a few years, but the level to which they have done so is disappointing for competition's sake. NASCAR is more fun when there's an air of unpredictability, and for all the Next Gen car's flaws, it initially seemed like it had done wonders in bringing that element back to the sport.
But nowadays, at every non-drafting oval, you can tell exactly how fast every team and driver is going to be, every week.
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