The NASCAR Cup Series playoff battle is heating up, with the regular season just shy of the two-thirds mark following the 2026 season's 17th race at the new Qualcomm Circuit on Naval Base Coronado this past Sunday.
After 12 years of the "win and in" knockout playoff format, NASCAR went back to a revised version of the "Chase" setup that was used from 2004 to 2013. The top 16 drivers in points are set to qualify for the postseason, regardless of how many wins (if any) everybody has.
There have been some pleasant surprises so far this season, such as Spire Motorsports teammates Daniel Suarez and Carson Hocevar both sitting in the top nine in the point standings as race winners, with both well over 100 points above the playoff cut line. But several usual contenders find themselves in precarious positions.
Here are three of the perennial favorites who aren't where they want to be with nine of 26 races remaining on the 2026 schedule.
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
As a "champion" (2023) of the make-believe "full points" format that NASCAR fans have long dreamt about, William Byron, who did actually win the regular season title a year ago, was a driver whom many expected to benefit from the new playoff format.
Given the fact that he was the only driver who qualified for the Championship 4 in 2023, 2024, and 2025, to go along with another multi-win season in 2022, but simply couldn't get it done in the winner-take-all season finale, he was expected to be among those to take the most advantage from the points-focused format.
Instead, he's 13th in points and remains winless. He's 295 points out of the lead, and he's only 59 points above the playoff cut line, a gap we've already seen evaporate for some in as little as two race weekends.
Sure, we can blame Hendrick Motorsports for having a "down" year. But "down" year for Kyle Larson still includes fourth in points, and it still includes two wins for Chase Elliott in sixth.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
Where do we even start for Christopher Bell? I guess we can start somewhere, but it's been a challenge to actually finish, for one reason or another. And of course, disaster always seems to strike when he actually has a strong chance to win; he's already led more laps than he did in all of 2025.
Bell finds himself 12th in the standings, just one point ahead of Byron, and also hasn't won this year, despite having had a car capable of winning on at least three or four occasions. He's also still dealing with the fractured wrist he suffered in the wreck with Elliott at Michigan International Speedway.
Wrong place, wrong time has summed up his season, so go figure that that one actually came with an injury that effectively sidelined him at Coronado. Yes, he started the race, but he was replaced in the first stage, and replacement Brent Crews ended up last after a wreck. Bell scored one point simply by starting the race. Hey, at least it broke the tie with Byron.
This is a driver who was also expected to benefit greatly from the new format. He was in the best possible position to advance to the Championship 4, heading in the round of 8 finale, in both 2024 and 2025, after doing so in 2022 and 2023, only to be knocked out in heartbreaking fashion both years. In 2025, specifically, he was literally the top playoff scorer from the first nine races and wasn't even in the four-driver championship round.
And now in a points-based format, he's 294 points out of the points lead. That really makes a lot of sense. Another road course is on the schedule this weekend too, by the way.
Joey Logano, Team Penske
Now we have a driver whom many actually did expect to be hurt by the new format, given the fans' perception of him as a "playoff merchant" because of how he won his three championships in 2018, 2022, and 2024.
The 2024 example was perhaps the most egregious, when he finished 15th in the regular season standings, only qualifying for the postseason because of a five-overtime fuel mileage win over the driver who was, at that point, last in the standings.
Oh, and then he was reinstated after being eliminated in the playoffs, due to another driver's disqualification. The one plus is that he didn't win the championship itself because of a controversial caution with three laps to go, which is more than can be said in other notable cases, but I digress.
Nevertheless, some fans insisted that Joey Logano and the No. 22 team would simply figure out the new system and game that one, just as they did the previous format, since they've proven they know how to do well when it counts.
How is that working out? He's been outside of the provisional playoff picture for several weeks now, and he's currently sitting 18th, 10 points below the cut line. His average finish is outside of the top 20 in a field generally consisting of between 36 and 38 cars.
Again, sure, we can blame Team Penske for struggling as a whole. But we're pretty sure Ryan Blaney still drives for the same team, and he's third in points, 226 markers ahead of Logano, with a win.
The 18th race on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Toyota Save Mart 350, which is set to be shown live on TNT Sports from Sonoma Raceway starting at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, June 28.
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