The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season was supposed to unofficially begin this past weekend, but instead, it has been delayed until at least Wednesday thanks to snowstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region postponing the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium.
Regardless of when (or, frankly, if) the event is run, it will not count for points. But the Daytona 500 is right around the corner, and it's as good of a time as ever to jot down some predictions for the 2026 campaign.
With that in mind, here are five bold predictions for how the season might play out.
Shane van Gisbergen will make the Chase with ease
If you thought removing the "win and in" aspect from NASCAR's playoffs, now re-branded back to the Chase for the Cup, was going to stop road racing ace Shane van Gisbergen, think again. With NASCAR substantially increasing the number of points awarded for wins, he's going to be just fine in qualifying for the postseason. It won't even be close.
Let's put it this way. Had the 2026 format been in place last year, van Gisbergen hypothetically would have been 16th in points at the cutoff. Given his improvement on ovals toward the end of 2025, he should be in much better shape than that this time around. He'll not only make the Chase; he'll flirt with a top 10 points position.
The Carson Hocevar breakout will commence in full force
Arguably no driver in the Cup Series has become a bigger lightning rod of on-track controversy than Carson Hocevar. Because of that, he has also become one of the most disrespected drivers on the grid. People will take one look at the high volume of poor finishes he achieved last season, consider his reputation, and chalk it up to his own recklessness, when in fact the vast majority of those results were products of rotten luck.
That will revert to the norm in 2026, while the third-year driver and his Spire Motorsports team both take another step forward in their performance. Hocevar will earn his first career win, likely at an intermediate track, and will have no problems qualifying for the Chase.
Rumors of Team Penske's demise will prove to be greatly exaggerated
Given the adjustments to NASCAR's postseason format, one has to think the biggest losers would be Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Team Penske, whom the playoff schedule always lined up in favor of. But of course, this was all by design. And now that the championship isn't hinged upon one race, they will adjust accordingly.
Penske will be forced to allocate its resources into the full schedule rather than solely flat ovals, and Logano and Blaney will both find more speed throughout the season. If you thought you were done dealing with them as title contenders, you're in for a rude awakening.
On the whole, attrition will decline in 2026
In 2025, there were 188 Did Not Finish (DNF) results throughout the Cup Series season, an average of 5.2 per race. With the old playoff format incentivizing winning at all costs, it forced drivers to be overaggressive and led to senseless accidents on the regular. Now with the Chase back, it will be more important to take care of your equipment and avoid mistakes.
Across the board, this will cause the DNF rate to drop significantly. Drivers such as Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, and especially Chris Buescher, known for their reliability, will not be helped as much as people think, because there will be less attrition for them to capitalize on. The cream will still rise to the top.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion will be...
Denny Hamlin. Yes, we're doing this again. After his heartbreaking title defeat last fall, combined with the tragic offseason loss of his father in a home fire, his season could go either one of two ways. Either his focus won't be there mentally and his age will finally catch up to him, or he'll be more motivated than ever. We all know it's going to be the latter.
Hamlin should figure to be among the class of the field on a weekly basis until proven otherwise. He was also quietly given a subtle gift when it was announced that the fall race at Charlotte Motor Speedway will return to the oval layout, meaning there will be no road courses in the 10-race Chase.
With the season finale back at one of his best tracks in Homestead-Miami Speedway, he'll accomplish what he's waited 21 years to accomplish – and he'll be serenaded with a crowd full of cheers.