The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is set to get underway this weekend with the "Great American Race" at Daytona International Speedway, as long as Mother Nature cooperates.
Kyle Busch and Chase Briscoe are set to start on the front row, while Joey Logano and Chase Elliott won the two America 250 Florida Duel qualifier races on Thursday night to lock out row two.
When the main event comes, though, none of that will matter. Daytona is notorious for its unpredictability, and the Daytona 500 has seen no shortage of shock winners over the years. With chaos always right around the corner, it will be anyone's race.
With that in mind, here are five drivers who could stun the NASCAR world by winning the highly anticipated season opener.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cole Custer, No. 41 Haas Factory Team Ford
Cole Custer headlines this list because he was legitimately within one wrong move of winning not only the Daytona 500, but both Daytona Cup Series races a year ago. He was racing for the lead on the final lap in February before contact with Chase Briscoe triggered a crash, and then he led at the white flag in the late summer race before finishing fourth.
Custer has only one career Cup Series win, back in his 2020 rookie campaign at Kentucky Speedway. He won that one in dramatic fashion, so he knows how to thrive on chaos. If you're looking for a dark horse, he might be your guy.
Odds: +8000
Todd Gilliland, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford
Todd Gilliland always seems to find his way toward the front in these superspeedway races, leading late and finishing runner-up in the most recent such event at Talladega Superspeedway in October. His record in the Daytona 500 is sub-optimal, with no finishes better than 27th place, but that only says he's due to dodge the demolition derby luck landmines for once. He did lead 16 laps in 2024.
Gilliland has never won a Cup Series race in his four-year career, but his No. 34 Front Row Motorsports team has a Daytona 500 trophy in 2021 with Michael McDowell. Any of Bob Jenkins' three Fords could be solid sleeper picks on Sunday, but the second-generation driver seems like the best bet.
Odds: +6500
Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota
He's become somewhat of a forgotten man, but Erik Jones is one of NASCAR's most underrated superspeedway drivers. He won the Coke Zero Sugar 400 back in 2018, and he was the rightful winner of a Duel race a year ago. Additionally, in the 2025 regular season finale, he led late and finished fifth.
Ever since being forced to downgrade from Joe Gibbs Racing equipment to Legacy Motor Club, Jones hasn't gotten a whole lot of opportunities to run up front. He's usually good for an appearance at Darlington Raceway, Texas Motor Speedway, and a few other non-drafting tracks each year, and Daytona is there for the taking for everyone. Why not him?
Odds: +3000
Connor Zilisch, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Connor Zilisch can only really be considered a potential shock winner here for the fact that he's a Cup Series rookie making just his fourth career start. The 19-year-old phenom is potentially the best prospect NASCAR has seen in generations, and sooner rather than later, he should be among the short list of favorites anywhere on the schedule.
He might face some growing pains in his first Cup season, but drafting tracks are the great equalizer. Zilisch ran the summer event at EchoPark Raceway a year ago and finished 11th, and he's proven to be an extremely quick learner. Don't be surprised if he's up near the front when the checkered flag flies.
Odds: +4000
Riley Herbst, No. 35 23XI Racing Toyota
Laugh if you want. This slot was going to go to Corey LaJoie, who led within 10 laps to go in the 2025 race, but he crashed on the final lap of his Duel race on Thursday night and did not qualify. So instead, we'll throw out one of the wildest of all wild cards: Riley Herbst.
It's potential scenarios like this that make us all glad the "win and in" aspect of NASCAR's postseason is gone. In 2025, Herbst finished dead-last in points among full-time drivers not named Cody Ware. He probably won't be much better this year, but he does have a respectable record on drafting tracks, including a top 10 finish in the 2023 Daytona 500. Never say never.
Odds: +9000
Full Daytona 500 odds can be found here and are always subject to change.