For as much hype as the new NASCAR Cup Series "Chase" playoff format has gotten, the one flaw is that no matter how good 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick is during the 26-race regular season, his points lead can be no more than 25 points heading into the 10-race postseason.
Reddick, the series' only multi-race winner so far this year, has opened up a massive 105-point gap over Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin with five wins in nine races. But the pre-playoff points reset values are predetermined, which is something that was actually not true under the "win and in" format.
Still, Reddick is the clear championship favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, and there is perhaps no better reason than the fact that his five wins have come on five very different race tracks.
Yet at +400, it's technically more likely that somebody other than the driver of the No. 45 Toyota will win this year's Bill France Cup, even if a Reddick title has already felt inevitable for much of the season. And in some ways, it stands to reason; Reddick is only fifth in the series in laps led.
Who are the favorites to stop Reddick's championship charge?
1. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +450
Denny Hamlin is the obvious one, and not just because of the fact that he is extra hungry after being cruelly denied the 2025 championship. He may only have one win to his name at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he leads the series in laps led and arguably should have won at both Martinsville Speedway and Kansas Speedway. For the 21st time, is this finally his year?
2. Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +500
It has been nearly a full year since Kyle Larson most recently stood in victory lane, and two of the three races he won a year ago have already been contested in 2026. That lack of a late victory in 2025 didn't stop him from winning a championship under the old format, but he and the entire Hendrick Motorsports team need to step up if he is to contend again this fall.
3. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske
Odds: +550
Take away the consistent pit road issues, and Ryan Blaney is right up there with Denny Hamlin in terms of being able to challenge Tyler Reddick on a regular basis, even if he, like Hamlin, only has one win to show for it. The one thing for Blaney that was alarming is the fact that, until the race at Kansas Speedway, it was said that he was strong everywhere. But that's clearly still a work in progress.
T-4. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +800
Chase Elliott was one driver pegged to benefit most from the switch to the new postseason format, and the fact that he's already won a race earlier than he had ever previously won is an added bonus for one of the sport's most consistent drivers. But like with Larson, Hendrick Motorsports needs to get a handle on the new car body for the 2020 champion to be considered a real long-term threat.
T-4. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +800
Ditto for William Byron, who has had an extremely quiet start to the year and only finds himself tied for seventh in the point standings with two top five finishes. It's the longest he's gone without a win to start a season since 2020, which was before he had ever even won a race. It's far from panic time for the No. 24 team, but this is out of character for a team that ended the previous playoff era with three straight Championship 4 appearances.
T-4. Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +800
And to continue the theme of sleeping giants, we have Christopher Bell, who is only 10th in the standings and is still without a win, something that hasn't been true this late into a season since 2022. Bell is another driver who figured to benefit from the new postseason format, after literally leading the series in points during the playoffs (pre-Championship 4) a year ago but being left out of the Championship 4 anyway. He has just one win since his early three-race win streak in 2025.
Others to watch: Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe (+1400), Team Penske's Joey Logano (+1400), Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs (+2200)
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season's 10th race is a race that was won by Reddick in 2024. The Jack Link's 500 is set to be shown live on Fox from Talladega Superspeedway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, April 26. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!
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