It took until race number four on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, but somebody other than 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick found victory lane on Sunday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway, the first "regular" oval on the calendar after Reddick opened the season with two superspeedway victories at Daytona International Speedway and EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta Motor Speedway), plus a road course win at Circuit of the Americas (COTA).
Although the first three races of the year were de facto "wild card" races, the top seven drivers in the point standings following Ryan Blaney's Phoenix victory are all drivers who made it to the playoffs a year ago, and they are all drivers who would have made it to the playoffs a year ago even if NASCAR had implemented its new top 16 "Chase" format one year earlier.
Beyond those top seven, however, it's a bit chaotic; only three of the other drivers inside the provisional playoff field made it in a year ago, and of the other nine, only one of them actually would have made it in a year ago, had the 2026 format been utilized in 2025.
But there are six drivers who made it into the playoffs a year ago and find themselves below the top 16, and none of them are even that close to the top 16.
We'll even add a seventh to that list, a driver who made it to the 2025 Xfinity Series (O'Reilly Auto Parts Series) Championship 4 and was considered one of this year's preseason championship favorites.
Here's a look at those seven drivers already facing an uphill battle.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports
Alex Bowman is in the worst position. Even before missing the Phoenix race with vertigo, he was 36th (last) in the point standings, 45 points below the cut line. He now finds himself 77 points behind. It's a massive hill to climb, especially for a driver with just one win since March 2022, and he really can't afford to miss any more starts if he wants to have any chance to erase that deficit.
Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing
There's been a ton of hype surrounding Connor Zilisch's promotion to the Cup Series, but at some point, we all need to realize that he needs time, just like pretty much every other highly rated prospect to climb through the ranks. He's 55 points below the cut line, and although his road course prowess is undeniable, his best oval result is a 29th place DNF.
Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing
Chase Briscoe, who is only two points ahead of Zilisch, is probably the most surprising driver on this list, having qualified for the Championship 4 in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing after winning three races. Aside from his second place finish at Atlanta, he has scored exactly one point in every race this year, despite having a top three car in each. It's been nothing shy of a disaster.
Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing
Josh Berry is one of the two drivers who only qualified for the 2025 playoffs because of his victory, so it's not particularly surprising to see him below the cut line. But the fact that he's tied for 31st with Cody Ware, 50 points below it, is a surprise. The good news is he won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway a year ago. The bad news is even if he wins there on Sunday, he'll probably still be well outside the top 16.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske
Although Austin Cindric surprisingly would have made the playoffs a year ago even without his victory at Talladega Superspeedway, he has always been viewed as one of the drivers most likely to lose out with the abolishment of the "win and in" system. He's 30th in points, 48 points below the cutoff, and he's yet to finish a race higher than 26th this year.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing
Seeing as how Austin Dillon hasn't qualified for the playoffs on points since 2016, despite recording six winning seasons since, there was very little chance that he would be a postseason contender in 2026. Like Berry, he wouldn't have come close to getting in a year ago without his win, and while it's still early, that is unlikely to change. He's 44 points behind and has yet to finish a race inside the top 15.
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
Ross Chastain isn't in as bad of a spot as these other six drivers, but 23rd in points is not where he wants to be. It's no secret that Trackhouse Racing have not been as strong as they were in 2022 when Chastain made a surprise run to the Championship 4, and given his form since 2023, it would not be surprising to see him be one of the drivers in the battle at the cut line for much of the regular season. He's currently 26 points behind.
The Pennzoil 400 is set to be shown live on Fox Sports 1 from Las Vegas Motor Speedway starting at 4:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 15. Start a free trial of FuboTV today and catch all of the action from the season's fifth race!