After 12 years of the four-round, 10-race knockout Championship 4 format, NASCAR has reverted back to a format that closely resembles the Chase format, which existed from 2004 through 2013, to crown the 2026 champion.
As expected, once the new format was confirmed, plenty of fans did the math to see who would have been crowned champion in 2025 had the new 2026 format been in place. If we assume all other things had remained equal, the champion still would have been Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson.
Larson, of course, won his second title without leading a lap in the Championship 4 season finale, benefiting from a controversial late caution flag period with under three laps remaining to beat Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin.
Even before the new championship format was announced, Larson was listed by DraftKings Sportsbook as the favorite to win a third championship in 2026, and that is still the case.
Who are the drivers most likely to prevent what would be the first repeat championship since Jimmie Johnson's run of five consecutive Chase titles from 2006 to 2010?
1. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +500
What is it going to take for Denny Hamlin to become a NASCAR Cup Series champion? He had it in the bag in 2025, and he still didn't win it. He won more races than anybody else, despite being the only full-time driver to miss a race, and was simply on a heater when it mattered most down the stretch.
On the very dim bright side, second was his best finish since 2010, and after the emotional offseason he has had, he's probably more ready to get back in the race car than he ever thought he'd be after his championship heartbreak.
It is worth mentioning that Hamlin is tied with Larson at +500, making them co-favorites. That has been the case the entire offseason.
T-2. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +550
While you obviously can't ignore Larson's two championships, there's a case to be made that William Byron has emerged as Hendrick Motorsports' top driver in recent years. He's the only driver who qualified for the Championship 4 in each of the final three years of the previous playoff format, and he's riding a streak of four consecutive multi-win seasons.
Byron and the No. 24 team were so fast in 2025 that even with a mid-summer cold stretch, he still managed to win the regular season championship, despite adding only one win other than his season-opening Daytona 500 victory. He could very well stand to gain the most from the new format.
T-2. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske
Odds: +550
Taking unfortunate DNFs out of the equation, you could make a case that Ryan Blaney was NASCAR's strongest driver throughout the 2025 season, and quite honestly, had a couple of things not gone against him, he might very well be a three-time reigning champion as we speak.
He came oh-so-close to winning a second straight title in 2024, and after barely missing out on the Championship 4 in 2025, he finally managed to actually win a race at Phoenix Raceway to close out the year. The new format should play to his benefit as well.
4. Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +650
Perhaps nobody should be happier to see the playoff format change than Christopher Bell, who somehow missed the Championship 4 in both 2024 and 2025 despite being the driver in the best position to advance, heading into the round of 8 finale, in both years.
It was a particularly bizarre situation in 2025, since he was literally the top playoff scorer and still wasn't one of the four championship round qualifiers.
Bell has emerged as a threat to win anywhere, with his early-season three-race winning streak in 2025 serving as a good reminder. If you take stage points and playoffs out of the picture, he would have been the 2025 champion.
T-5. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
Odds: +850
I'm going to sound like a broken record, but Chase Elliott should also stand to benefit from the new format because of how much it rewards consistency.
Perhaps nobody is better at staying out of trouble than Elliott, and after recording his first multi-win season since 2022 in 2025, he could be as close to putting that all together and returning to championship form as he's been since his own three-year Championship 4 run from 2020 to 2022.
T-5. Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing
Odds: +850
Chase Briscoe's first season with Joe Gibbs Racing didn't start out particularly well, but once he got going, he was hard to stop.
Having a year under his belt with the No. 19 team should make him as much of a full-season threat as anybody in 2026 after he was able to overcome his early struggles and still make a run to the Championship 4 for the first time.
7. Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing
Odds: +1400
Tyler Reddick had a down season in 2025, but given what he was dealing with away from the race track, it stands to reason. He won multiple races in his first two years with 23XI Racing, winning the regular season championship and clinching a spot in the Championship 4 in year number two.
If there was anybody who probably needed a reset after the 2025 campaign, it was Reddick. Don't be surprised to see him get back to his 2024 form in 2026.
8. Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing
Odds: +1600
We all saw what Connor Zilisch is capable of during his historic rookie Xfinity Series season with JR Motorsports. Can he adjust quickly to the Cup Series and contend for a title in his first year?
On paper, he probably shouldn't be ranked this high as a rookie, but because of his immense upside, the sportsbooks are right to protect themselves by listing him here. He is probably the biggest unknown of the group, but what is not unknown is his level of raw talent. And that's enough to make him dangerous.
T-9. Joey Logano, Team Penske
Odds: +2000
Fans were disgruntled to find out that Joey Logano, who won three championships in the Championship 4 era, would actually be a four-time champion had the new format been implemented during the 12 years the previous format was used.
Logano is clearly not the "playoff merchant" that most fans want you to think he is, and given his history in even-numbered years, he certainly can't be counted out in 2026.
T-9. Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
Odds: +2000
Ross Chastain has yet to have a season nearly as good as his first season with Trackhouse Racing back in 2022, when he placed second behind Logano in the championship standings, but he got back to the playoffs in 2025 after missing them in 2024 and is quietly on a four-year winning streak following his epic Coca-Cola 600 comeback drive.
With Zilisch suddenly viewed as Trackhouse Racing's top driver and prized possession, despite having only ever made three Cup starts, the intrateam dynamic could be interesting.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here and are always subject to change.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to begin on Sunday, February 15 with the 68th annual Daytona 500. Live coverage from Daytona International Speedway is set to be provided by Fox starting at 2:00 p.m. ET, so begin a free trial of FuboTV today!