The NASCAR Cup Series playoff field has been whittled down to eight, and this is where the cream rises to the top.
Only three teams – Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Team Penske – have representatives still alive. Four of the remaining drivers are past champions. Seven of the eight have been to the Championship 4 at least once in their careers.
Who will capture the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series title? Let's discuss.
Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports
Why he can win the title: Larson is the best driver in NASCAR. His best days are better than anybody else's best days. He's been there before in 2021, and he's won three times at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the home of the crucial first race of the round of 8. If he locks in with a victory on Sunday, he'll be tough to beat.
Why he can't win the title: Larson may be the face of the sport, but he hasn't looked like it since May. He's led only 120 laps since the Coca-Cola 600, and hasn't won since the 12th race of the season at Kansas Speedway. He's slightly returned to form during the playoffs, but not enough to inspire confidence that he can flip a magic switch and go supernova on the field when he needs to.
Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports
Why he can win the title: Elliott is riding some positive momentum after a thrilling win at Kansas Speedway two weeks ago, and he looks poised for his best shot at a Championship 4 appearance in three years. He'll be a favorite at Martinsville Speedway, host of the season's penultimate round, and he's won the title race at Phoenix Raceway before in 2020 (beating two Penske cars, at that).
Why he can't win the title: Elliott begins the round of 8 in a 14-point hole due to his lack of playoff points throughout the year. The No. 9 team continues to struggle in bringing high-end raw speed to the track, forcing Herculean efforts from the driver through late restart chaos if he's going to compete for wins. He could transfer to Phoenix on points, but any bad luck whatsoever and he's likely doomed.
William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports
Why he can win the title: Byron and the No. 24 team were nails during the regular season, and they still lead the full-season points standings. They've been competitive everywhere, and the rest of the schedule suits him nicely, with past wins on his resume at Las Vegas, Martinsville, and Phoenix.
Why he can't win the title: If you haven't noticed Byron up front in a while, it's because he hasn't been. He's led 146 laps in the past 16 races, and 141 of them came during his pit strategy win at Iowa Speedway. He's in the same boat as his Hendrick teammates: pointing in might be his only hope, and even if he gets to Phoenix, he'd be an underdog against the Penske and Gibbs stables.
Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing
Why he can win the title: It's easy. Bell won at Phoenix in the springtime, so if he gets there again, he'll be as good of a bet as anybody. He's been rock-solid all season, leading the series in average finish and winning four times, and he's currently riding a streak of five straight top 10 finishes. He should at the very least return to the Championship 4 after missing in controversial fashion last year.
Why he can't win the title: Bell starts the round of 8 on the wrong side of the cut line, albeit only by four points. For as good as his season looks on paper, his 282 laps led stick out like a sore thumb, and throughout the second half of the year, teammates Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have more consistently shown the dominance needed to win championships in this format.
Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing
Why he can win the title: Sigh, are we really doing this again? Yes, we are, because Hamlin enters the round of 8 in the best points position, and his win at Martinsville earlier in the year makes him a favorite to punch his ticket to Phoenix, even if he doesn't point his way in. He also came up half a car length of beating Bell at the site of the championship race back in March. It could very well finally be his year.
Why he can't win the title: Stop if you've heard this before, but Hamlin has been his own worst enemy over the past three weeks, and that's not even mentioning the distraction of his 23XI Racing team's lawsuit against NASCAR. He'll likely regret his multiple decisions to make Joey Logano's life easier, should the three-time champion once again work his tricks.
Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing
Why he can win the title: Briscoe feels like the driver everybody is sleeping on right now. The No. 19 team has been as good as any in the garage since around the midway point of the season, and he has a win at Phoenix back in 2022. He's 14 points in the hole to start the round of 8, but watch out for the Indiana native.
Why he can't win the title: Is he ready for the moment yet? That remains to be seen. He's the only driver remaining who has never made a Championship 4 appearance, and this is where the men are separated from the boys. His margin for error is razor thin, and he may need to rely on more than just raw speed.
Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske
Why he can win the title: He's been the best driver all season, and he's been there before. It goes without saying that Penske is built for the playoffs, and Blaney is likely to be a favorite in each of the last three races. That's reason enough to put your money on the No. 12.
Why he can't win the title: Random strokes of bad luck happen, and no one would know that better than Blaney, who has seven DNFs this season, all through situations completely beyond his control. If he doesn't have the speed at Las Vegas and then gets swept up in a wreck at Talladega Superspeedway the week after, there's no guarantee he'll find his Martinsville magic for the third straight year to earn a shot at his second title.
Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske
Why he can win the title: Logano's playoff devil magic is working its tricks again, advancing to the round of 8 on the last lap at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. Now he'll be a favorite at Talladega, and if he gets to Phoenix, he's been next to unbeatable there when he's qualified for the Championship 4. A fourth Cup Series title for the Connecticut native is very much on the table.
Why he can't win the title: It's an odd-numbered year, so the streak must continue someway and somehow. Logano is 24 points behind the cut line to start the round of 8, so he might need to win to get in. He's had by far the weakest season of anyone still left in the playoffs, so realistically speaking, he can't keep getting away with this, right? Right?