Kyle Larson has been unstoppable in the NASCAR Cup Series' two most recent trips to Bristol Motor Speedway. While the 2021 series champion had one prior win and three runner-up finishes in "Thunder Valley" prior to the 2024 playoff race, he has simply been on another level since then.
Larson has led a combined 873 of the 1,000 laps run between last season's Bristol Night Race and the spring race earlier this season. He also swept the stages in both and dominated from start to finish at one of the most challenging tracks on the schedule.
For anyone familiar with the sport, that type of dominance at Bristol is something Kyle and Kurt Busch were known for. Between the two, they combined to win 14 races at "The Last Great Colosseum". Kyle Busch led at least 100 laps in five of his eight wins and won back-to-back races three times, while Kurt won three straight from 2003 to 2004 and led at least 100 laps in each.
The Busch brothers certainly had their handle on Bristol for a while, but they were still not as dominant as Larson has been of late. After all, Kyle Busch has only led more than 400 laps once (2008) and Kurt Busch never led more than 278 (2010).
Can anyone end Kyle Larson's dominant run at Bristol?
Until some improved speed at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway before Larson eventually faded to 12th, the struggles had been real for the Hendrick Motorsports driver, as he entered the playoffs with only two top 10 finishes in the final six regular season races.
On the flip side, Toyota has been lights out in the playoffs so far, led by Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin, who have already locked up their spots in the round of 12 with wins at Darlington Raceway and Gateway, respectively.
Hamlin is the only driver besides Larson to win any of the four most recent Bristol races, taking the 2023 playoff night race and the 2024 spring event. He is arguably in the best position he has ever been in to claim that elusive championship.
Another Toyota driver, Christopher Bell, has not won a points race since March at Phoenix Raceway, but he has five straight top 10 finishes at Bristol and has scored stage points in every Next Gen race there.
If momentum is any indication, Chase Elliott, who scored a much-needed top three finish at Gateway and has finished runner-up in two of the three most recent Bristol playoff races, could also be a factor. So, too, could HMS teammate Alex Bowman, who enters Bristol 35 points below the round of 12 cut line but has won the pole there two races in a row.
Goodyear is also debuting a slightly softer right-side tire in an effort to promote greater wear. A lack of tire wear in last year's playoff race and this year's spring race has made it extremely difficult to pass, and it's taken away the thrilling racing that the track has been known for throughout its history.
Regardless of how the tires perform, Larson is the clear favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook (+280) entering the weekend (odds and availability subject to change). There are several drivers capable of taking him down, but if recent history is any indication, we could be in for another Larson beatdown at Bristol, especially if he qualifies well on Friday.