Christopher Bell's third straight win could be bad news for Joe Gibbs Racing

Though Phoenix Raceway is scheduled to host the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season finale, history suggests March victories don't translate.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, Shriners Children's 500, Phoenix Raceway, NASCAR
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, Shriners Children's 500, Phoenix Raceway, NASCAR | Chris Graythen/GettyImages

Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell became the first driver of the Next Gen era to win three consecutive NASCAR Cup Series races, as he held off teammate Denny Hamlin on Sunday afternoon to win the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

What is so impressive about Bell's run is the fact that he has done it on three very different race tracks. He entered Phoenix, which many considered the first "regular" race of the year, having won at a superspeedway in Atlanta Motor Speedway, and at a road course in Circuit of the Americas (COTA).

And with Phoenix scheduled to host the Championship 4 title decider for the sixth consecutive season this November, many pointed to Sunday's 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona oval as the regular season's most important race.

But as much sense as that would make, history shows that might not be the case.

Since the Championship 4 was moved from Homestead-Miami Speedway to Phoenix Raceway in 2020, never has the eventual series champion been the highest finisher among the eventual Championship 4 in the track's March race.

Let's take a look at each year.

In 2020, the Championship 4 consisted of Hamlin, Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott, and Team Penske teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. Logano won the March race, but Elliott won the championship with a November victory.

In 2021, the Championship 4 consisted of Hamlin, teammate Martin Truex Jr., Elliott, and teammate Kyle Larson. Truex won the March race, but Larson won the title with a November victory.

That trend continued into the Next Gen era in 2022, when the Championship 4 consisted of Bell, Elliott, Logano, and Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain. Of the four, Chastain was the highest finisher in March with a second place finish, but Logano won the championship with a win in November.

In 2023, the Championship 4 consisted of Bell, Larson, teammate William Byron, and Team Penske's Ryan Blaney. Byron won in March, but Blaney clinched the championship with a runner-up finish in November.

Then in 2024, the Championship 4 consisted of Byron, Logano, Blaney, and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick. Blaney led the group in March with a fifth place finish, but Logano won in November to seal another championship.

Will the same trend continue in 2025?

Bell has earned the right to be deemed this year's championship favorite, and the sportsbooks show that he is indeed. But he has yet to win at Phoenix in November, and he also won last year's March race at the track just months after a win there would have clinched him the championship.

So as important as this past weekend's race was, nothing is a guarantee. Bell isn't even a lock to make the Championship 4, even with 16 playoff points to his name already; he missed out last year due to a post-race penalty in the round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway.

Phoenix is scheduled to host the Championship 4 on Sunday, November 2.

Race number five of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to take place at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which is also on the playoff schedule in the semifinal round of 8 in October. Tune in to Fox Sports 1 at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 16 for the live broadcast of the Pennzoil 400. Start a free trial of FuboTV today and catch all of the action!