As soon as Denny Hamlin jumped the start by about 100 miles in Sunday night's rain-delayed Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway, it almost seemed inevitable that he was going to find a way to win anyway.
He only had one points-paying win all year entering the 300-lap race around the four-turn, 1.333-mile (2.145-kilometer) Lebanon, Tennessee oval, but the No. 11 Toyota has had the pace to win probably four or five other races, all other things being equal.
Statistically speaking, he has been stronger than 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick this season, and Reddick, who boasts a series-high five victories, has led the standings all year.
Sure enough, Hamlin rallied from his drive-through penalty relatively quickly, and he won a three-way shootout between himself and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe in the closing laps following a late restart. The win was his second of the year and first since mid-March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Denny Hamlin is his own worst enemy, at the worst possible times
A few weeks ago, after winning the All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway, which was not his 62nd official victory since that race was an exhibition race, Hamlin joked that it's been the story of his career that he has been able to win a lot when it hasn't counted.
He's been the all-time winningest driver, among those who have competed full-time, without a championship to his name for seven seasons now, and that's despite the fact that he qualified for three Championship 4s during that stretch, to go along with the four top four finishes in the standings he had recorded before matching Mark Martin.
So of course he managed to win a late May race at Nashville after a mind-boggling error before the start that dropped him to 38th.
The question is whether or not he can finally break through and win when it counts, and whether he can avoid those seemingly persistent substantial errors, mental or otherwise, when perfection is demanded.
There was no worse heartbreak than what he endured at Phoenix Raceway a year ago, when he was cruising to a championship with a dominant performance before a caution came out with under three laps remaining. He came into the pits for four tires; Kyle Larson came in for two. Larson came out ahead and won the championship without leading a lap, simply by finishing ahead of Hamlin after the ensuing two-lap shootout.
Again, story of his career.
But in 2026, there are no more excuses. The "winner take all" Championship 4 format is gone, and the 10-race "Chase" is back.
Joe Gibbs Racing's advantage over literally everybody else is as big of an advantage as we've seen for anybody in the Next Gen era. They're running 1-2-3 at some point in pretty much every race at pretty much every track.
Hamlin has been the best driver of the 2026 season, bar none. Even with "only" two wins, he's accounted for two-thirds of the team's victories. He's on pace to break his previous career-best of laps led by almost 500 laps. And he's doing it at the age of 45 in season number 22, more motivated than ever after what happened in 2025.
If everything else remains as it is, Hamlin should finally be able to call himself a Cup Series champion come November.
That is, if he doesn't get in his own way.
The 15th race on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the FireKeepers Casino 400, a race Hamlin won a year ago. Amazon Prime Video is set to provide live coverage from Michigan International Speedway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, June 7.
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