Every driver's percent chance to make (or miss) the 2025 Daytona 500

Tricon Garage's Martin Truex Jr. and Legacy Motor Club's Jimmie Johnson finished Wednesday night's Daytona 500 qualifying session (full results here) as the fastest two drivers of non-chartered (open) entries, locking themselves into the field for Sunday's 67th running of the "Great American Race".

But JR Motorsports' Justin Allgaier and Rick Ware Racing's Corey LaJoie, the next two fastest drivers among the open cars, can still back into the race on speed themselves, as Truex and Johnson can still technically race their way in via Thursday night's pair of 60-lap Duel at Daytona races.

Though it comes after the single-car session, racing one's way in via a Duel heat takes precedence over locking in on qualifying speed.

Of course, Allgaier and LaJoie can still race their way in as well. But the other five drivers of open cars – Trackhouse Racing's Helio Castroneves, Beard Motorsports' Anthony Alfredo, Garage 66's Chandler Smith, Live Fast Motorsports' B.J. McLeod, and NY Racing Team's J.J. Yeley – absolutely must race their way in, or they will fail to qualify.

We must also mention that if Castroneves fails to qualify, however, he would still be added to the 40-car field in a 41st car, as he was granted a "world-class driver" provisional. Still, he cannot officially take one of the four open spots unless he races his way in.

Bottom line, Truex and Johnson are in, regardless of how, while Allgaier and LaJoie have multiple ways of getting in. Everybody else must top their Duel race, among open entries, or they will not qualify for the "Great American Race".

What are the chances of each Duel outcome?

Let's have a look at how each of the open entries, including the two already locked in, can get into the Daytona 500.

Here are two charts to keep handy during the two Duel races.

NOTE: Percentages are compiled assuming all drivers have the same chance of finishing in any given position. Because there are two spots available on speed and two spots available on Duel result, those two categories each add up to 200%, rather than 100%.

Martin Truex Jr., Tricon Garage

In: 100%
In on speed if: Truex does not lead open cars in Duel 1 (80%)
In on Duel result if: Truex leads open cars in Duel 1 (20%)
Out if: N/A (0%)

Jimmie Johnson, Legacy Motor Club

In: 100%
In on speed if: Johnson does not lead open cars in Duel 2 (75%)
In on Duel result if: Johnson leads open cars in Duel 2 (25%)
Out if: N/A (0%)

Justin Allgaier, JR Motorsports

In: 55%
In on speed if: Truex leads open cars in Duel 1 OR Johnson leads open cars in Duel 2 while Allgaier does not lead open cars in Duel 1 OR both (35%)
In on Duel result if: Allgaier leads open cars in Duel 1 (20%)
Out if: Somebody other than Truex or Allgaier leads open cars in Duel 1 AND somebody other than Johnson leads open cars in Duel 2 (45%)

Corey LaJoie, Rick Ware Racing

In: 35%
In on speed if: Truex or Allgaier lead open cars in Duel 1 AND Johnson leads open cars in Duel 2 (10%)
In on Duel result if: LaJoie leads open cars in Duel 2 (25%)
Out if: Somebody other than LaJoie or Johnson leads open cars in Duel 2 OR, if Johnson does lead open cars in Duel 2, somebody other than Truex or Allgaier leads open cars in Duel 1 (65%)

Helio Castroneves, Trackhouse Racing

In: 20%
In on speed if: N/A (0%)
In on Duel result if: Castroneves leads open cars in Duel 1 (20%)
Out if*: Castroneves does not lead open cars in Duel 1 (80%)

*if "Out", Castroneves would still be added as the 41st driver, due to his provisional

Anthony Alfredo, Beard Motorsports

In: 25%
In on speed if: N/A (0%)
In on Duel result if: Alfredo leads open cars in Duel 2 (25%)
Out if: Alfredo does not lead open cars in Duel 2 (75%)

Chandler Smith, Garage 66

In: 20%
In on speed if: N/A (0%)
In on Duel result if: Smith leads open cars in Duel 1 (20%)
Out if: Smith does not lead open cars in Duel 1 (80%)

B.J. McLeod, Live Fast Motorsports

In: 25%
In on speed if: N/A (0%)
In on Duel result if: McLeod leads open cars in Duel 2 (25%)
Out if: McLeod does not lead open cars in Duel 2 (75%)

J.J. Yeley, NY Racing Team

In: 20%
In on speed if: N/A (0%)
In on Duel result if: Yeley leads open cars in Duel 1 (20%)
Out if: Yeley does not lead open cars in Duel 1 (80%)

Fox Sports 1 is set to provide live coverage of the Duel at Daytona beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET this evening, while Fox is set to provide live coverage of the Daytona 500 itself beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon. Catch all the action with a free trial of FuboTV!