Mercedes have invested a ton into the career of George Russell, going back to his days as a member of their junior driver program. After three impressive years with Williams, he finally replaced Valtteri Bottas ahead of the 2022 Formula 1 season.
For three years, he outperformed seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton in the same machinery, but with 2022 marking the start of the new ground effect era of regulations, Mercedes were quite a ways off from where they were following the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014. From 2014 to 2021, they won seven driver titles and eight straight constructor titles.
Russell has still managed to have success during his Mercedes stint, scoring five wins (four after last year's Belgium DNQ). Hamilton won twice from 2022 to 2024, with one of those two wins coming as a result of Russell's removal from the Spa results.
But before the 2024 season began, Hamilton made the shocking decision to sign with Ferrari for 2025. After years and years of the same recycled rumor never coming close to fruition, it was actually real this time.
As a result, Ferrari were forced to cut ties with Carlos Sainz Jr., even after the success he had after replacing four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel from 2021. The team remained committed to Charles Leclerc, the eight-time Grand Prix winner long viewed as a world champion in the making.
Sainz won four races from 2022 to 2024, but he was ultimately forced to move to a lesser team in Williams simply because Ferrari no longer had room.
Even amid the Grove-based team's uptick in performance for 2025, they find themselves fifth in the constructor standings, three spots behind Ferrari.
Now Russell could become the next Sainz, a victim of circumstance that has been brewing ever since there were questions earlier this year about why the Silver Arrows had mysteriously yet to re-sign him.
And perhaps this circumstance is even harder to swallow than Sainz's.
I think it's fair to say that Hamilton, at 40 years old, is past his prime. The reasons Ferrari had for signing him were questionable, but when the seven-time world champion and 105-time Grand Prix winner became available, it simply felt like a perfect fit (even though there have been plenty of challenges thus far in 2025).
Now Mercedes have the chance to sign four-time reigning world champion Max Verstappen. Verstappen, unlike Hamilton, is in his prime, and he is growing increasingly disgruntled with the state of a floundering Red Bull team.
The turnover within Red Bull, specifically since the start of last season, has been mind-boggling, and it goes well beyond the departure of engineering legend Adrian Newey.
The team that won 21 of 22 races in 2023 after also dominating the 2022 season have fallen to a distant fourth in the constructor standings, and without Verstappen, their points per car per race tally is the lowest in Formula 1. Even with the benefit of Verstappen, they are on pace for their worst result in the championship since 2008.
Mercedes are reportedly willing to up Verstappen's salary and pay Red Bull $102 million to buy out his contract, though the specifics of any exit clauses in his Red Bull deal, which is said to extend through 2028, are unknown.
There is speculation that he cannot move elsewhere unless he is lower than the top three in the driver standings at the summer break, and he is currently third, yet that hasn't quieted the talk.
Still, given the timing of the shock firing of team principal and CEO Christian Horner, speculation of a Verstappen to Mercedes move is at an all-time high.
Verstappen to Mercedes in 2026?
Sure, there have been rumors since before the 2024 season, when Red Bull's cracks really began to show, that Verstappen and his father, Jos, wanted Horner out. So the suggestion that Horner's firing is what is needed to keep the 27-year-old Dutchman beyond 2025 could certainly have some plausibility.
Others, however, have suggested that Horner's firing, and the subsequent promotion of Laurent Mekies from sister team Racing Bulls, comes as a result of the fact that Verstappen is already as good as gone, and now the team have to face the reality: rebuilding from their current status as the ninth or 10th fastest team on the grid.
Considering the fact that there have been no major regulation changes since the 2022 set was introduced, such a decline would have been considered unfathomable just 18 months ago. Yet here we are.
And don't think Verstappen doesn't know that. Don't think his eyes aren't already on 2026, and given the apparently well-sourced chatter about the Mercedes power unit having a major advantage while Red Bull work through the uncertainty of developing their own with longtime partner Honda leaving, is the seemingly straightforward decision really already made?
If so, Russell would be out of his seat, through no fault of his own. Though he has outperformed rookie teammate Kimi Antonelli through the first half of the 2025 season, that was to be expected. The team are understandably unwilling to cut ties with the 18-year-old after just one year, as they have also invested a ton into his journey to Formula 1.
As for Russell, victim of circumstance would be the best and only way to describe it. Back in 2014, Toto Wolff wanted to sign Verstappen, and the fact that Mercedes didn't have room to do so has haunted him ever since, as that is what ultimately led him to join Red Bull through sister team Toro Rosso in 2015.
That feeling became even more clear last year when he tried to sign the 65-time Grand Prix winner for 2025 as Hamilton's replacement, but was unsuccessful.
Russell might well be a top-five driver on the grid right now. But Verstappen is a top-one driver on the grid right now, and second chances like this one don't come around often, if ever, in Formula 1.
It really seems to be up to Max, and quite frankly, that part of it might have been a done deal weeks, if not months, ago.
Not many people expected last year's early silly season talk to be about where Sainz would end up following his Ferrari departure. Now a shockingly similar situation may have to commence about Russell.