Although the top NASCAR Cup Series organizations tend to run up front and dominate at superspeedways each season, they do not always end up in Victory Lane. That is especially true for the Daytona 500, a race that has become more known for its attrition in recent years, as drivers try to survive all 500 miles just to be there at the end.
Sure, William Byron has won the two most recent editions and could become the first driver in the sport's history to win three Daytona 500s in a row. With that said, he is not the favorite to complete the three-peat. That honor belongs to three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin, one of several drivers most likely to derail Byron's pursuit of the hat trick in NASCAR's most prestigious race.
However, of the top five drivers most likely to stop Byron, only Hamlin and Joey Logano have actually won the Daytona 500 before.
Two-time series champion Kyle Busch, who is one of several drivers still searching for his first win in the Great American Race, won his first Daytona 500 pole on Wednesday night, and he is far from the only driver who could be hoisting his first Harley J. Earl Trophy after 500 miles.
All signs point to a first-time Daytona 500 winner
According to NASCAR Insights, Tyler Reddick scored the most points (199) on drafting tracks in 2025, and he was one of eight drivers inside the top 10 on that list who have never won a Daytona 500. Three of them, Carson Hocevar, Todd Gilliland, and Ty Gibbs, are still searching for their first overall Cup Series win.
Points scored on drafting tracks in the 2025 Cup Series season: pic.twitter.com/9BzLEFZPum
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) February 3, 2026
Considering the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing when one wrong move can change everything, we can't take for granted those results carrying over into 2026. However, with the attrition factor thrown in as drivers try to manage their equipment and save enough fuel for the first half of the race before ratcheting up the aggressiveness in the second half, those drivers proved they were the most consistent one season ago.
Defending champion Kyle Larson, who just signed a multi-year extension with Hendrick Motorsports and could join an exclusive list of drivers with a win on Sunday, had three top 10 finishes on drafting/superspeedway tracks in 2025 and has done everything but win the Daytona 500 in his career.
The same can be said for Busch, who is set to make his 21st Daytona 500 start. Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Bubba Wallace, meanwhile, have each finished runner-up, but have never been able to put it all together. The points scored from 2025 show that these drivers not only put themselves toward the front and scored stage points throughout the races, but they also avoided the carnage and had good finishes to show for their performance.
That list does not even include 2025 Daytona 500 polesitter Chase Briscoe, 2012 series champion Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell, Clash winner Ryan Preece, three-time Daytona 500 polesitter Alex Bowman, or Chris Buescher, to name a few, all drivers who have proven they can win races and seem to be around at the end more often than not.
After the 2025 Daytona 500 domination from the Team Penske Fords of Austin Cindric, Logano, and Blaney, who combined to lead 125 laps, they are again among the favorites to be in the mix for the win. If not, look for Hamlin or the Hendrick Motorsports quartet to be around when the pay window is open.
However the race plays out, though, expect some fuel-saving in the early going and complete chaos once the intensity ramps up in the closing laps. If that is the prevailing theme once again, a first-time Daytona 500 victor, and maybe even a first-time series winner, cannot be ruled out.