Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson opened up the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season as the favorite to defend his championship from a year ago, something no driver has done since seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson won his first five championships in consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2010.
The 2026 season is the first season under NASCAR's new "Chase" postseason format, which closely resembles what was used to crown a champion from 2004 to 2013.
The much maligned "win and in" knockout format that was used from 2014 to 2025 was finally abolished after the controversy which saw Larson crowned champion over Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin in November at Phoenix Raceway.
Larson notably would have won the 2025 championship even if the new 2026 format had been in place, although it goes without saying that drivers would have been forced to alter their season-long approach had the rules been different.
Just one race into the 2026 season, Larson is no longer the favorite.
DraftKings Sportsbook now lists Hamlin as the +370 favorite to win the championship, just ahead of Larson at +400.
It's an interesting change, considering the importance of points under the new format. Sure, you can't really read into the results of a single race at superspeedway, but Larson finished 16th in the Daytona 500, while Hamlin finished 31st. Larson is in a 14th place tie in the standings, while Hamlin is in 33rd.
So the fact that the shift occurred after this race, of all races, is somewhat surprising. Hamlin finds himself 19 points below the provisional playoff cut line, the cut line that sits between 16th place Noah Gragson and 17th place Michael McDowell. Larson is three points ahead of the cutoff.
It may be hard to nail down a true favorite after this weekend's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway (now EchoPark Speedway) as well, since this track is also a superspeedway. But beyond this weekend, just three of the regular season's remaining 24 races are superspeedway races.
Daytona 500 winner and points leader Tyler Reddick is currently listed eighth to win the championship at +1400.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found here.
Tune in to Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, February 22 for the live broadcast of the Autotrader 400 from EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta). Start a free trial of FuboTV and catch all of the action!