The number of times we've heard "getting hot at the right time" as it pertains to the NASCAR Cup Series over the years was far too high. The reality of the Championship 4 knockout era was that it was truly impossible for someone to be "heating up" in the middle of June or July and have it mean anything relevant to the championship battle.
When it came to the playoff format that was utilized from 2014 to 2025, the three-race playoff rounds presented a level of volatility that rendered regular season performance relatively meaningless.
Sure, some drivers entered each round with more points than others, based on their wins or stage wins, or even their regular season points finish.
But those extra points were rarely enough to prevent an untimely disaster from undoing one's entire season of work. The old format was less about "getting hot at the right time" – and certainly not three months before the playoffs even started – and more about avoiding trouble at the wrong time.
Just look at the past few years. For starters, in 2025, every driver in the Championship 4 aside from Kyle Larson won a race in the round of 8.
Who won the championship? Larson. When was his most recent win? May, six months prior.
So much for him being cold at the wrong time.
In the Championship 4 era, there was no "right time", other than those small-sample size rounds in the fall. And one single mechanical issue – or untimely yellow – could literally sink your entire championship not because it happened, but because of when it happened.
In 2024, Joey Logano got into the playoffs thanks to a five-overtime win over the driver who was last in points at the time. And when he wasn't winning playoff races, his playoff results were terrible. Even by the time he was crowned champion, he wasn't top 10 in season-long points.
History won't remember who was supposedly hot in the middle of August of that year. They'll remember Logano winning another championship because of the knockout setup, and of course, fans complaining about it.
In 2023, fans complained a lot less (because let's face it; Ryan Blaney isn't nearly as despised as Logano is), but Blaney also only finished the regular season 13th in the point standings. How could someone possibly limp into the playoffs and be crowned champion?
Maybe because "getting hot at the right time" at any point before the final two or three weeks of the 36-race season was never more than a myth at worst and an overreaction at best.
In NASCAR's new format, however, it might hold some weight.
With points mattering more than anything else in the new championship format, in terms of not only qualifying for the playoffs – now, once again, the "Chase" – but for seeding, since drivers who finish higher up the order in the regular season are awarded more points to start the postseason, now there's a case to be made that a driver is heating up – or even cooling down – at the wrong time.
Yes, even in June or July. Every point in every race is set to matter again. For 12 years, it really didn't, and as the years progressed, that became clear more often than not.
Regular season momentum can be a major factor again, and it can have a direct impact on the championship because of how the post-regular season points reset works – and because of the fact that there's only set to be one of them, not one and then three more after back-to-back-to-back rounds of only three races, leading up to a winner-take-all single-race title decider.
Of course, if a driver has a red-hot regular season and cools off the playoffs, that is still obviously going to hurt, just as it would in any sport – and just as it would have if NASCAR had reverted to a 36-race season-long points championship instead of the modified postseason structure.
But the point is that those regular season hot – or cold – streaks are absolutely set to matter again from a big picture standpoint either way. And that's a good thing.
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