The Max Verstappen decision which could set Red Bull back to infancy

Let’s be honest: a generational talent like Max Verstappen doesn’t come along very often. And while the Dutch driver's assurances for the 2026 Formula 1 campaign might be comforting to those in Milton Keynes for now, the four-time world champion’s future at Red Bull is still very much in doubt, despite him being under contract through 2028.

The 27-year-old confirmed this summer he plans to remain at Red Bull next year, navigating around rumors of an eventual Mercedes move due to an exit clause in his contract which would have allowed him to leave the team at the end of 2025 if he were fourth or lower in the standings after the Hungarian Grand Prix.

If Verstappen bolts Red Bull after next season, it would be the Formula 1 equivalent to the NBA’s “The Decision", when superstar LeBron James in 2010 opted for Miami in his prime, leaving behind hometown Cleveland, the team that drafted and developed his talents, in free agency.

Red Bull had success prior to Verstappen (see Sebastian Vettel era), but his arrival in 2015 marked a new chapter for the team. He won the world championship in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, solidifying his status as one of the sport's all-time greatest drivers. The team also secured constructor championships in 2022 and 2023, showcasing their dominance in the sport. 

It's been a proverbial "down" year for Verstappen in 2025. Despite not being mathematically eliminated from championship contention just yet with eight races remaining (yes, there’s still a chance he could win it this year!), Verstappen is unlikely to secure his fifth title this season.

It would take a miracle, as they say. He currently sits third in the standings behind McLaren’s dynamic duo of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, respectively. Piastri leads the charge with 324 points followed by Norris at 293 and then Verstappen at 230. Piastri has won seven races and Norris five of his own.

Verstappen, meanwhile, has captured three races wins, including at Monza last weekend, where he left the grid in the dust and won by over 19 seconds.

Verstappen did the “Temple of Speed” justice in qualifying, too, fulfilling the promise of the track’s nickname by setting the fastest lap in the 75-year history of the F1 world championship. He covered Monza’s 3.6 miles in 1:18.792 at an average speed of 164.47 miles per hour. No driver has ever lapped quicker on an F1 weekend.  Yep, he's the GOAT.

So, what does this all mean? For one, Verstappen appears more motivated than ever by the emergence of Piastri and Norris as legitimate threats. Two, his RB21 with upgraded floor and front wing seems to be the best version of the car to date.

Three, Red Bull are already doing their best to ensure that Verstappen’s short-term plans become long-term ones by doing everything possible to make him happy, including moving on from longtime team principal Christian Horner earlier this season after the friction between the two seemed to come to an impasse. And four, Red Bull are also exploring that second seat next to Verstappen with the regulations set to change.

Red Bull face a bigger problem if Max Verstappen leaves

But let’s say 2026 doesn’t go as planned. Verstappen will likely be doing some evaluation of his own, and that could mean Mercedes or even Ferrari enter the chat. And while that doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility, the kicker here is that Red Bull are already having trouble finding a suitable sidekick for Verstappen (hasn’t this always been an issue?). How would they also find a legitimate replacement for him if he decides to leave?

Mercedes have intentions to re-sign George Russell and teammate Kimi Antonelli for 2026, but the two have yet to put pen to paper and ink those deals. Perhaps Russell could replace Verstappen at Red Bull, although Toto Wolff’s dream at Mercedes seems to be to pair Verstappen and Russell together.

Case in point, Verstappen departing Red Bull would create a void the team will simply have no answer for, and it could legitimately set them back to their early days in the sport, circa 2005.

Red Bull finished in seventh place those first three seasons while they worked to figure things out. The team didn’t really turn a corner until 2010 behind Vettel, when the German driver secured the first of his four straight world championships with Red Bull. His reign culminated with the 2013 crown and set the stage for the Verstappen era.

It's clear that Verstappen plans to use next season to evaluate his future, and that future will be dependent on Red Bull’s form in F1’s new technical era – no more DRS and smaller, lighter cars as active aerodynamics take over. New engines will also be introduced to power the redesigned cars with a 50/50 split between electrical power and an internal combustion engine.

If Red Bull aren't contenders by the end of next season, Verstappen’s options for 2027 could include Mercedes, Ferrari, and even Aston Martin. Red Bull’s options to replace Verstappen won’t be as enticing, but then again, it’s hard to find multiple F1 champions in their prime on the open market. It might be anything but a bullish market for Red Bull in 2027.