NASCAR change made that should've happened three weeks ago

What happened to start the round of 16 of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs happened again to start the round of 12, and it generated almost the exact same change at sportsbooks.

Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson opened up the playoffs as the outright betting favorite to win the 2024 championship, then he crashed out at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell became a co-favorite. Bell even became the outright favorite at one point.

But Larson survived and advanced to the round of 12, and he once again started as the outright betting favorite. A disastrous race at Kansas Speedway, however, resulted in him once again being joined by Bell as the co-favorite.

The change didn't make all that much sense, considering the fact that Larson was still well above the cut line to get to the round of 8 and was guaranteed the points lead if he did manage to survive and advance once again, given his huge playoff point advantage over everybody else in the field.

And just like he did to end the round of 16 at Bristol Motor Speedway, he drove a practically perfect race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to end the round of 12, not only solidifying his spot in the round of 8 for the third time in four years but adding to his playoff point advantage to give himself a 33-point lead over the Championship 4 cut line to start the semifinal round.

Once again, he is the outright favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. He and Bell were both listed at +450 before the Charlotte Roval race. Now Larson is listed at +370, with Bell still listed at +450.

Full championship odds can be found here.

At some point, you've got to think that these overreactions when Larson has bad races, races that hardly impact his playoff positioning (if at all), are going to be taken advantage of by bettors.

They probably already have been. Even at +370 (implying a 1 in 4.7 chance to win the title) seems like it's selling the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet short, considering the fact that, barring a disaster, he should be in the Championship 4.

But above all, Larson should have been the outright favorite all along.

Larson has been the best driver all season. His six wins are more than twice as many as the next highest driver(s), and he is the overall points leader, despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, a race he won before and the race in which more points were on offer than any other race on this year's schedule.

Though Bell should by no means be written off, he hasn't won a race since June, and the only other playoff race winner who is still eligible for the title is Team Penske's Joey Logano.

While the other seven remaining title contenders all rank in the top seven in total points scored this season, Logano is only 15th in that category and only got to the round of 8 after Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman was disqualified from the Charlotte race.

23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick, listed as the third favorite at +500, hasn't won since mid-August. Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin and Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron, the only drivers aside from Larson and Bell with at least three wins this year, haven't found victory lane since April.

Larson is the heavy favorite to win this Sunday's race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and punch his ticket to the Championship 4. The 2021 champion, who won at the track back in March, is listed at +330. Byron is listed as the second favorite at +850. Bell is listed at +900.

NBC is set to provide live coverage of the South Point 400 starting at 2:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 20. Larson won this race last year, and he won at Las Vegas in March. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!