Heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, there were four drivers who seemed like the obvious picks to be eliminated in the round of 16.
Unsurprisingly, those four drivers were the four drivers who finished lowest among the 16 playoff drivers in the regular season point standings: Team Penske's Austin Cindric (15th), Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry (21st), Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen (25th), and Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon (26th).
But a disastrous first two races in the round of 16 for Hendrick Motorsports' Alex Bowman led to him entering Saturday night's round of 16 at Bristol Motor Speedway below the round of 12 cut line, along with Berry, Dillon, and van Gisbergen.
Bowman struggles lead to surprise advancement
Though the Bass Pro Shops Night Race was one of the 2025 season's most chaotic and unpredictable races, largely due to the abundance of Goodyear tire wear and degradation, there were no changes as far as the cut line was concerned from the time the race started until the time the race ended.
Cindric, despite a late fire which mired him several laps down and dropped him to the 12th and final spot above the cut line, managed to advance over Bowman, who at that point needed to win to move on. He ended up in eighth place.
Cindric is in the playoffs for the third time in four years as a full-time driver, and on all three occasions, he has advanced to the round of 12, making it somewhat confusing that so many people penciled him in as one of the four who would be out in the round of 16.
That said, Bowman's elimination was a bit shocking in itself, even after he entered the playoffs as one of only two non-winners from the regular season. It took finishes of 31st place at Darlington Raceway and 26th at Gateway to put him in the unfavorable position he was in heading to Bristol, and in six previous playoff appearances, he had always advanced to the round of 12.
At any rate, the eliminations of Berry, Dillon, and van Gisbergen, who combined for a single top 22 finish in the round of 16, were not surprising. You could even argue that they weren't noteworthy, because none of them really had a chance.
But give Cindric credit for rising above the doubters, especially given the fact that he advanced after the late issue took away a potential top five finish on Saturday night and left him in 30th.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway is scheduled to get the round of 12 under on Sunday, September 21 with the Mobil 1 301. USA Network is set to provide live coverage starting at 2:00 p.m. ET. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!