The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is off to a flying start after Tyler Reddick became the first driver in series history to win the first three races of a season on Sunday at Circuit of the Americas (COTA).
His success in the season's early going has even drawn praise from 23XI Racing co-owner Denny Hamlin as he looks to become the first driver since seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson in 2007 to win four straight races.
With Bubba Wallace second in points, 70 points behind Reddick, 23XI Racing has been the clear team to beat in the early going. While the success has occurred at three unique tracks, this Sunday's trip to the one-mile Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona will serve as the host of the first traditional oval race of the year as the season begins to heat up.
Considering all the momentum that Reddick and 23XI Racing have, it would not be out of the question for them to pick up where they left off at COTA. However, as most drivers try to claw their way out of an early points deficit, Phoenix presents a whole new opportunity, and one that could come down to the final lap.
If 2025 is any indication, it may not be decided until the checkered flag waves.
Phoenix Raceway quietly made history in 2025
Christopher Bell outlasted Hamlin by 0.049 seconds in the 2025 spring race, while Ryan Blaney edged ahead of Brad Keselowski by 0.097 seconds in the championship race last fall.
According to NASCAR Insights, it marked the first time in Cup Series history that a non-drafting track saw multiple races decided by less than 0.1 seconds in a single season.
2025 Cup Series margins of victory at Phoenix:
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) March 4, 2026
Spring: 0.049s
Fall: 0.097s
This was the first time in Cup Series history a non-drafting track saw multiple races decided by less than 0.100 seconds in a season. pic.twitter.com/cDt7PddMrC
Bell's win marked the second-closest finish in the track's history, while Blaney made a last-corner maneuver around Keselowski to steal the win in the championship race. To be fair, both races were decided in a two-lap dash, but we have seen numerous green-white-checkered finishes fail to produce finishes as captivating as these two.
It is also important to remember that Hamlin had the race won in regulation, if not for a late caution for William Byron with under three laps to go, so the closeness of the finish was certainly aided by the overtime restart that bunched the field back up. Nevertheless, as we have seen multiple times at Phoenix, cars can get spread out all over the track on restarts, and it is every driver for himself until the field gets strung out.
One thing to keep in mind going into the weekend is that the Straight Talk Wireless 500 will be the first points-paying race on an oval this season to utilize the new 750 horsepower package, which is being used for road course races and all oval races at tracks measuring less than 1.5 miles in length.
The 2025 spring race featured more strategy with the addition of option tires that Goodyear provided to the teams, so an increase in horsepower will mark another change of pace for drivers.
History before 2025 suggests that we should not expect a similar finish to those in the two races one season ago. If you take out a late restart and Sunday's race ends on a long green flag run, don't expect a nail-biting finish to take place.
It will be hard to replicate what happened in 2025, but if there is a late caution like we saw in those two races, the design of turns three and four certainly sets up well for someone to make a last-ditch effort like Blaney did in the fall. After the history that Reddick has already made to begin the season, who is to say that Phoenix cannot build off its historic 2025 season and produce another edge-of-your-seat finish?