NASCAR: 4 drivers at risk of missing the 2024 Daytona 500

Thursday night's two Bluegreen Vacations Duels are set to solidify the starting lineup for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway after Wednesday night's single-car qualiyfing session solidified the front row.

Wednesday's session at the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) high-banked Daytona Beach, Florida oval also locked two drivers into the race who had not been previously locked in.

With the 36 charter cars all locked into the 66th annual "Great American Race", 40 cars allowed to compete in the race, and 42 cars on the entry list, there were effectively six drivers going for four spots heading into the week.

Daytona 500 qualifying

The fastest two of these six drivers in the single-car qualifying session were Beard Motorsports' Anthony Alfredo and RFK Racing's David Ragan. As a result, they are locked into Sunday's 200-lap race regardless of what happenes in tonight's paid of 60-lap races.

The four drivers who remain not locked in are, in order of qualifying speed, Legacy Motor Club's Jimmie Johnson, Live Fast Motorsports' B.J. McLeod, NY Racing Team's J.J. Yeley, and Front Row Motorsports' Kaz Grala.

Duel number one is set to feature Alfredo, Johnson, and Yeley (in addition to 18 others). Duel number two is set to feature Ragan, McLeod, and Grala (also in addition to 18 others).

The highest finisher among Alfredo, Johnson, and Yeley is set to lock into the Daytona 500. Though Alfredo is already locked in, he can improve his starting position by locking in on Duel result as opposed to qualifying speed.

Those who officially lock in on speed are set to start on the 20th and final row of the grid, whereas those who lock in on Duel results are set to have their starting positions determined by their Duel results.

Similarly, the highest finisher among Ragan, McLeod, and Grala is also set to lock into the Daytona 500. Though Ragan is already locked in, he can still improve his starting position by locking in on Duel result as opposed to qualifying speed.

Bluegreen Vacations Duels procedure

It's really not as complicated as it seems.

Should Alfredo or Ragan race their way in, Johnson would be able to fall back on his qualifying speed as the third fastest qualifier. If both race their way in, Johnson and McLeod would be able to fall back on their qualifying speed as the third and fourth fastest qualifiers, respectively.

If neither Alfredo nor Ragan their way in, Johnson would need to beat both Alfredo and Yeley to lock himself into the Daytona 500, and McLeod would need to beat both Ragan and Grala to lock himself in.

As the fifth and sixth fastest drivers in qualifying, Yeley and Grala have no way to get in on speed. Yeley must beat both Alfredo and Johnson, while Grala must beat both Ragan and McLeod.

The Bluegreen Vacations Duels are set to be broadcast live on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET and 9:00 p.m. ET this evening. The Daytona 500 is set to be broadcast live on Fox beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 18, weather permitting. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the upcoming action from Daytona International Speedway!