NASCAR: Bubba Wallace on the hot seat at 23XI Racing?

Bubba Wallace's contract has not yet been extended by 23XI Racing, and it is due to expire at the end of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. Though all indications point toward Wallace returning to the team for a fifth season behind the wheel of the No. 23 Toyota, is there reason to believe he could be on the hot seat?

Wallace is the Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan-owned team's original driver. Jordan made clear that the team "don't sign checks for losers" and that he believed in the talent of the Mobile, Alabama native shortly after the team announced their entry to the sport in late 2020 for 2021.

Wallace's stint with the team has undoubtedly produced his highest level of Cup Series success. Though he didn't make the playoffs in either season, he won at Talladega Superspeedway in 2021 and added another victory at Kansas Speedway in 2022. He then qualified for the playoffs for the first time in 2023.

But in 2024, he finds himself winless and outside of the provisional playoff picture, a picture that is becoming increasingly hard to break into with so many different winners, 12 to be exact, having emerged throughout the season.

What further complicates matters for Wallace is the success of Tyler Reddick, who has emerged as one of the series' elite drivers since moving to 23XI Racing. He has already won more races since the start of last season than Wallace has since joining the team two years prior, and he very easily could be sitting on a three-race win streak as things stand right now.

The driver of the No. 45 Toyota is a contender on pretty much every race weekend, and he has clawed his way up to third place in the point standings. He is well within striking distance of the top spot. He owns 13 top 10 finishes compared to Wallace's six and eight top five finishes compared to Wallace's three.

Reddick outperformed Wallace last year as well, advancing to the round of 8 with two victories in his first season with the team. Wallace made the playoffs for the first time in his career as well, but on the owner side, it was the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team that got the 16th and final playoff spot over the No. 23 23XI Racing team.

In other words, had Chase Elliott not missed seven races, it would have taken a very miserable stretch of seven races from the 2020 champion to keep Wallace on the inside of the postseason bubble.

Even going back to 2022, which was Wallace's first season with a teammate in what was then his fifth season as a full-time driver, he was outperformed by Kurt Busch, who had qualified for the playoffs thanks to his win at Kansas before having to withdraw due to injury. Wallace had six top 10 finishes during the regular season; a 43-year-old Busch had eight in six fewer races during what ended up being his final season in the sport.

Bubba Wallace likely to stay at 23XI Racing

Though Corey Heim is viewed as their driver of the future, 23XI Racing are believed to be one of the three teams set to acquire a charter from Stewart-Haas Racing. Gene Haas plans to retain one of the four while one of the other three is on its way to Front Row Motorsports. Trackhouse Racing Team is said to be the other prospective buyer.

Expansion makes sense for the Joe Gibbs Racing-affiliated team, given their continued improvement from year to year. The addition of a third car also makes it highly unlikely that they will cut ties with Wallace.

Though he's simply not on Reddick's level and hasn't yet had a true breakthrough moment or season, 23XI Racing could do a lot worse than having Wallace in one of their cars, especially with very few top drivers still available.

The addition of a third car also creates a need for stability, and bringing in two new drivers at once could end in disaster. There is also no guarantee that Heim would even be brought in yet, with Riley Herbst's name having also been mentioned as a possibility.

Wallace sits in a respectable 15th place in the point standings, but he is 45 points below the playoff cut line because of how many drivers have won. Clearly there is some frustration from his side with how things have gone this year.

Just last Sunday, he slammed Chicago street race winner Alex Bowman into the wall after the race came to an end, just days after Hamlin urged NASCAR to penalize Carson Hocevar for his retaliatory act on Harrison Burton. Hocevar spun the No. 21 Ford under caution at Nashville Superspeedway.

Hamlin, of course, slightly changed his tune to support his driver, which would indicate that Wallace is by no means in hot water with the team over what he did. NASCAR fined him, and he admitted he shouldn't have done it.

Let's also not forget that Hamlin himself has a particularly interesting history with running into a race-winning Bowman during his victory celebration. Wallace even stopped shy of calling Bowman a "hack".

Wallace is also one of very few drivers who has the ability to singlehandedly bring eyeballs to the sport, and that has been on display on far more than one occasion. Though he may be one of the more criticized drivers on social media, he is still unquestionably a fan-favorite, and he remains a sponsorship magnet.

So unless he starts running at the back or wrecking on a regular basis, 23XI Racing would be foolish to cut ties with him at this stage in his career. You simply can't count on every driver to perform as well as Reddick has.

Having said that, Wallace could help himself out a whole lot by finding victory lane again for the first time in two years, silencing any doubt that he has solidified his future with the team. Winning his way into the playoffs is something he has yet to do.