When Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen won at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez a few weeks ago, it was said that he had "clinched" a spot in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, but that could not have been further from the truth.
While the playoff format is widely considered a "win and in" format, the Cup Series entered this past weekend's Grant Park 165 at the Chicago Street Course with 12 winners in 18 races, leaving eight remaining races on the regular season schedule in which more new winners could emerge.
Regardless of how many winners there are, the playoffs are capped at 16 drivers. Though it hasn't happened since the introduction of the modern format in 2014, there can absolutely be more than 16 different winners, in which case a winner (or multiple winners) would not actually qualify for the playoffs.
The regular season champion is locked in, as are all drivers who win more than once (since there can be no more than 13 of them in 26 races). The tiebreaker, if applicable, to see which single-race winners get in and which don't becomes points.
Likewise, if there aren't enough winners to fill the postseason field, points determine which non-winners get in and which don't. This is what it usually comes down to, but again, it's not guaranteed that there won't end up being more winners than playoff spots.
Van Gisbergen was in a bad spot on points.
While the other 11 winners were inside the top 20 in the standings, he found himself down in 31st place. He was all but a lock to finish the regular season as the lowest winner in the point standings, meaning that had the regular season produced (and it still might) 17 or 18 winners, he'd be in a precarious situation.
Not anymore.
By winning twice, van Gisbergen is locked into the playoffs. He could finish last in the point standings and still qualify, even if the regular season ends with seven more new winners to give it 19 in total.
Some might argue that it's one of the flaws of the modern format, while some might use it to reinforce the idea that it's not really a "win and in" format like we're supposed to believe. While winning once may not seal the deal, winning twice certainly does, regardless of points.
Now van Gisbergen doesn't have to worry about losing his playoff spot.
The Toyota/Save Mart 350 is the next race on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and it is set to be shown live on TNT Sports from Sonoma Raceway beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, July 13.