Two years ago, Max Verstappen was in the middle of arguably the most dominant Formula 1 season ever. It appeared the Dutchman would be a Red Bull driver for the rest of his career. Bringing it back to the present day, Red Bull are in growing danger of losing the four-time world champion to Mercedes as soon as next season.
From the midpoint of last season onwards, the Red Bull car has been lacking in pace compared to its rivals and has been on a downward trajectory. In light of that, the 27-year-old may be able to exit the team a few years early due to rumored exit clauses in his contract. With Verstappen being P3 in the driver championship and Red Bull being P4 in the constructor championship, the clause conditions are very close to being met.
The growing indication that Verstappen will move to the Silver Arrows means Toto Wolff will be forced to dump one driver, in a similar fashion to Carlos Sainz Jr. being dropped by Ferrari for Lewis Hamilton. Considering Kimi Antonelli is the long-term Mercedes project, George Russell would have to be dropped in favor of the Dutchman.
Cadillac will be watching from a distance
Formula 1’s 11th team is eager to join the grid next season. With the team starting with good funding, they hope to become one of the stronger teams down the line eventually. Cadillac could be eyeing Russell’s signature to start strong.
The British driver has established himself as one of the best drivers on the grid, with the potential to be a future world champion. The issue with having that status is that joining a new team poses a very big risk. Cadillac could very well be a backmarker team for the first few seasons, ultimately hurting Russell’s career.
Two things have to happen if Cadillac are to persuade Russell to join the team. First, they would have to make Russell one of the highest-paid drivers on the grid. Second, Cadillac have to be willing to share their data and designs to show promise in their project.
If Russell were to be left without a team for 2026, Red Bull and Alpine would also have their sights on his signature. Assuming the Mercedes driver lineup for 2026 is finalized shortly after the summer break ends, he could be having talks in the paddock nearly every race weekend to close the season.
The potential for concern
With Valtteri Bottas also heavily linked to joining Cadillac, there could be a lot of tension between him and Russell. The two shared a heated moment at the 2021 Imola Grand Prix, where an ambitious overtake attempt from Russell caused him to lose control and crash into Bottas.
In the world of Formula 1, heated incidents between teammates are rarely appreciated by teams. They are typically seen as a recipe for disaster down the road.
Nevertheless, Verstappen’s potential move to Mercedes could have Cadillac watching closely. In what would be a huge gamble for Russell’s career, it could pay off with a regulation change potentially leveling out the field.