It's no secret that the NASCAR Cup Series playoff format wasn't exactly straightforward during the Championship 4 knockout era from 2014 to 2025.
The format was considered "win and in", yet that was never completely true, since there were 26 regular season races and 16 playoff spots.
The 16 playoff spots officially went to the regular season champion, plus the 15 drivers who ranked highest in wins. If there were more winners than playoff spots, the multi-race winners were in, and the tiebreaker to see which single-race winners got in and which didn't was points. If there weren't enough winners to fill the 16 spots, the tiebreaker among non-winners was also points.
In other words, if the old format were still in place, 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick would be the only driver locked into the postseason through nine races. His AdventHealth 400 victory on Sunday at Kansas Speedway was his fifth of the season, and the season's other four winners have all only won once.
Yet under NASCAR's new "Chase" format, in which only the top 16 drivers in points are set to qualify for the postseason, Reddick technically isn't locked in.
But seriously, who are we kidding at this point?
Reddick has a 105-point lead in the standings over Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin in second place, and even though NASCAR boosted the value of wins from 40 to 55 points over the offseason, there are still only 75 points on offer in each race. So Reddick's points lead is about as safe as it gets, and it will probably remain that way for quite some time.
He has scored 457 points through nine races. If he finishes last in all 17 remaining regular season races, he'd finish the regular season with 474 points, good for an average of 18.23 points per race.
That same average is currently good for 164 points, which would put him 19th in the point standings as things stand.
Sure, it's not inside the top 16 (yet), but the fact that he can literally sleepwalk his way to a top 20 finish in the regular season standings over the next four months does just about everything but mathematically guarantee him a top 16 regular season points finish come late August.
And for a driver who hasn't finished lower than 15th all year, there's no reason to believe he's going to suddenly start finishing last every week.
Race number 10 on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Jack Link's 500, which is set to be shown live on Fox from Talladega Superspeedway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 26. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!
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