While we know the full-season standings are meaningless, with NASCAR opting to go back to a 10-race "Chase" postseason format for the 2026 season after ditching the "win and in", knockout-style setup that had been used from 2014 to 2025, they're always fun to look at to see just how different (or similar) they are when compared to the real standings.
In this case, they're quite different.
After a winless regular season, Kyle Larson has had a resurgent postseason, winning three of the first eight races to take a 73-point lead in the standings over regular season champion Denny Hamlin.
Yet Hamlin's so-called decline, under a full-season points format, wouldn't be considered a decline at all. He would have entered the postseason with an 89-point lead, rather than a 25-point lead following the reset, and he'd actually be leading by 98 with two races to go.
Larson ironically would have been eliminated on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, in a race he won, since he's 175 points behind with two races remaining. The maximum for each driver in each race is 76 points, meaning that only the drivers with 152 of Hamlin would still be eligible to win the title.
Aside from Blaney, the only other driver within 152 is 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick, and Reddick is 151 points behind.
NASCAR Cup Series full-season championship battle
Rank | Driver | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota | 1295 | 0 |
2 | Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford | 1197 | -98 |
3 | Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota | 1144 | -151 |
4 | Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet | 1120 | -175 (OUT) |
In other words, for Reddick to lead the series in total points, he would need to sweep the stages and win both races, score the fastest lap bonus point in both, and have Hamlin miss at least one of those final two races while finishing last in the other.
And that's only because he already owns the wins tiebreaker over Hamlin with his six victories this year. Hamlin has four.
As for Blaney, he'd need to make up significant ground on Hamlin at Martinsville Speedway to remain within that 76-point threshold. He does have three wins to Hamlin's four, so he'd still be eligible to win the tiebreaker if he wins both remaining races. But Hamlin currently has three runner-up finishes to Blaney's two.
Blaney could tie Hamlin in both categories with a win and a runner-up finish, provided Hamlin doesn't record another one of either, and both have recorded three third place finishes this year. But Hamlin has the edge on fourth place finishes, meaning that they only way Blaney would own the tiebreaker is by winning twice.
Again, this hypothetical math is all technically meaningless, since this isn't the format that it is in place, and everybody plays by the same rules that are.
But if Hamlin clinches the series lead in total points scored for 2026 this week, especially if he's also eliminated from winning the actual championship in the same race, expect the full-season points enthusiasts to be as loud as they've ever been, perhaps even louder than they were during some of the much-maligned championship battles of the "win and in" era.
Sunday afternoon's Xfinity 500 is set to be shown live on NBC from Martinsville Speedway beginning at 2:00 p.m. ET. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the race that could well be the championship decider, even before the 2026 season finale!
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