Statistically speaking: a look at Talladega Superspeedway

By Amanda Vincent | Oct 19, 2014

The NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup heads into race six with Sunday’s running of the Geico 500 at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway. The race is also the final race in the second, or Contender, round, meaning four of the remaining 12 drivers will be eliminated from championship contention.

Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano head into Talladega as the two drivers who are already guaranteed advancement into round three, or the Eliminator round, by virtue of race wins the last two weeks.

Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson are the four drivers who head into Sunday’s Talladega race in the four elimination spots. Of those four, Earnhardt has the best career stats, win-wise, with five trips to victory lane. Johsnon and Keselowski are each two-time winners at Talladega, while Kenseth has one-career win at the track.

Those four drivers aren’t the only ones in danger, though, although most of the other drivers not guaranteed in do hold their destinities in their own hands, at least as much as is possible at Talladega. Here is what those drivers need to do to guarantee advancement. Those at the bottom, though, will need to either win at Talladega, count on some bad luck or performance from one or more of those ahead in the standings, or see their championship hopes fly out the window.

Here’s a look at how the 12 Chasers have fared at Talladega over the years:

1 – Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 107.2

2014 Rundown

Five wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 11.5
Led 20 races for 916 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Two top fives, four top 10s
Average finish of 20.7 in 11 races
Average Running Position of 16.5, eighth-best
Driver Rating of 81.7, 11th-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 193.205 mph, 10th-fastest

2 – Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 91.9

2014 Rundown

One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 16.3
Led 15 races for 453 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

One win, four top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 21.4 in 19 races
Average Running Position of 18.8, 19th-best
Driver Rating of 81.1, 13th-best
88 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
6,094 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
1,782 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3%), sixth-most
3,705 Quality Passes, sixth-most

3 – Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.2

2014 Rundown

Three wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; eight poles
Average finish of 13.5
Led 23 races for 1,815 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 15.9 in 27 races
Average Running Position of 18.9, 21st-best
Driver Rating of 78.0, 21st-best
80 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
6,423 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
1,594 Laps in the Top 15 (44.1%), 10th-most
3,382 Quality Passes, ninth-most

4 – Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 85.9

2014 Rundown

Two top fives, 13 top 10s
Average finish of 13.5
Led 6 races for 31 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Four top fives, nine top 10s
Average finish of 21.5 in 25 races
Average Running Position of 22.2, 34th-best
Driver Rating of 69.1, 30th-best

5 – Carl Edwards (No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 82.8

2014 Rundown

Two wins, seven top fives, 13 top 10s
Average finish of 14.3
Led 11 races for 135 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Two top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 21.1 in 20 races
Average Running Position of 23.7, 40th-best
Driver Rating of 67.3, 32nd-best
77 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most

6 – Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 110.3

2014 Rundown

Four wins, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 9.8
Led 22 races for 740 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Six wins, 15 top fives, 19 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 16.7 in 43 races
Average Running Position of 18.9, 20th-best
Driver Rating of 80.6, 15th-best
1,644 Laps in the Top 15 (45.5%), ninth-most

7 – Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.9

2014 Rundown

One win, six top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 15.0
Led 13 races for 217 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

One win, four top fives, six top 10s
Average finish of 19.1 in 17 races
Average Running Position of 17.7, 12th-best
Driver Rating of 83.1, ninth-best
70 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
5,604 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
1,543 Laps in the Top 15 (47.8%), 11th-most
3,443 Quality Passes, eighth-most

8 – Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 88.6

2014 Rundown

One win, three top fives, 11 top 10s
Average finish of 16.5
Led 11 races for 206 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 21.5 in 21 races
Average Running Position of 21.7, 32nd-best
Driver Rating of 70.0, 29th-best
5,877 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
3,170 Quality Passes, 12th-most

9 – Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 92.2

2014 Rundown

11 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 13.9
Led 17 races for 467 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

One win, five top fives, nine top 10s
Average finish of 18.3 in 29 races
Series-best Average Running Position of 14.0
Driver Rating of 90.9, second-best
6,129 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
Series-high 2,361 Laps in the Top 15 (65.4%)
4,531 Quality Passes, third-most

10 – Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ale Ford)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 103.9

2014 Rundown

Five wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; five poles
Average finish of 13.3
Led 25 races for 1,506 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Two wins, three top fives, six top 10s
Average finish of 16.4 in 11 races
Average Running Position of 20.1, 24th-best
Driver Rating of 79.7, 17th-best

11 – Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 98.6

2014 Rundown

Three wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 14.4
Led 15 races for 1,035 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Two wins, six top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 17.2 in 25 races
Average Running Position of 16.6, ninth-best
Driver Rating of 85.9, seventh-best
1,881 Laps in the Top 15 (52.1%), fifth-most
3,768 Quality Passes, fifth-most

12 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.6

2014 Rundown

Three wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s
Average finish of 12.2
Led 14 races for 269 laps

Talladega Superspeedway Outlook:

Five wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s
Average finish of 15.0 in 29 races
Average Running Position of 14.8, third-best
Driver Rating of 90.3, third-best
78 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
6,487 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 193.225 mph, ninth-fastest
2,155 Laps in the Top 15 (59.7%), third-most
4,160 Quality Passes, fourth-most

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