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IndyCar: Championship implications of the “Pass of the Season”

By Asher Fair

SAUSALITO, CA - AUGUST 27: The Astor Cup is displayed next to the Golden Gate Bridge on August 27, 2015 in Sausalito, California. Five Indy cars, lead by Marco Andretti in the #25 car, drove over the Golden Gate Bridge with the Astor Cup ahead of the Verizon IndyCar Series at Sonoma Raceway. The crossing also paid tribute to Verizon IndyCar Series driver Justin Wilson, who died on August 24 following injuries sustained at the ABC Supply 500 at Pocono Raceway on August 23. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
SAUSALITO, CA - AUGUST 27: The Astor Cup is displayed next to the Golden Gate Bridge on August 27, 2015 in Sausalito, California. Five Indy cars, lead by Marco Andretti in the #25 car, drove over the Golden Gate Bridge with the Astor Cup ahead of the Verizon IndyCar Series at Sonoma Raceway. The crossing also paid tribute to Verizon IndyCar Series driver Justin Wilson, who died on August 24 following injuries sustained at the ABC Supply 500 at Pocono Raceway on August 23. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) /
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Josef Newgarden made a statement with his bold pass of Simon Pagenaud at Gateway. What possible IndyCar championship implications did that pass have?

When Josef Newgarden passed Simon Pagenaud with an extremely bold move on the inside heading into turn 1 at Gateway Motorsports Park with 31 laps to go in the Bommarito Automotive Group 500 IndyCar race, the championship battle was drastically shaken up.

In fact, that move may end up having huge championship implications given the massive points swing between Newgarden, Pagenaud and Scott Dixon, who ended up passing Pagenaud when he was sent high towards the wall upon being slightly bumped as Newgarden took the lead away from him.

Let’s have a look at just how huge that move was. But first, let’s have a look at the pass that has everybody talking.

Now let’s analyze the championship implications this pass may end up having.

Here are the current championship standings among the top 4 in the standings, of which three were impacted heavily by this move.

  1. Josef Newgarden (547 points)
  2. Scott Dixon (516 points, -31)
  3. Helio Castroneves (505 points, -42)
  4. Simon Pagenaud (504 points, -43)

Here is a list of how many points are awarded to the top 3 finishers of a race.

  • 1st place – 50 points
  • 2nd place – 40 points
  • 3rd place – 35 points

Newgarden had already secured himself 3 bonus points thanks to leading at least one lap and leading the most laps of the race when he made the pass, and Pagenaud had secured himself one bonus point for leading at least one lap, so the pass did not change anything from a bonus point perspective.

When Newgarden passed Pagenaud…

  • Newgarden gained 10 points and Pagenaud lost 10, creating a 20-point swing in favor of Newgarden relative to Pagenaud.
  • Newgarden gained 10 points, creating a 10-point swing in favor of Newgarden relative to Dixon.
  • Pagenaud lost 10 points, creating a 10-point swing in favor of Dixon relative to Pagenaud.

Then, because he went wide and lost all kinds of momentum as a result of Newgarden passing him, Pagenaud then lost 2nd place to Dixon, which also factors into this equation.

When Dixon passed Pagenaud…

  • Dixon gained 5 points and Pagenaud lost 5, creating a 10-point swing in favor of Dixon relative to Pagenaud.
  • Dixon gained 5 points, creating a 5-point swing in favor of Dixon relative to Newgarden.
  • Pagenaud lost 5 points, creating a 5-point swing in favor of Newgarden relative to Pagenaud.

The race ended with Newgarden winning, Dixon in 2nd place and Pagenaud in 3rd. Here are the overall implications of the pass.

When it was all said and done…

  • Newgarden had gained 10 points and Dixon had gained 5, creating a 5-point swing in favor of Newgarden relative to Dixon.
  • Newgarden had gained 10 points and Pagenaud had lost 15, creating a 25-point swing in favor of Newgarden relative to Pagenaud.
  • Dixon had gained 5 points and Pagenaud had lost 15, creating a 20-point swing in favor of Dixon relative to Pagenaud.

So if Newgarden wins the championship by fewer than 5 points over Dixon, it will have been because of this move. If he wins it by fewer than 25 points over Pagenaud, it will also have been because of this move.

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And finally, if Dixon wins it by fewer than 20 points over Pagenaud, his fifth career IndyCar championship will have been won as a result of this move.

Seeing as how eight of the last 11 championships have been decided by fewer than both 25 and 20 points, with four of those eight having been decided by 5 points or less, this pass may end up being the reason behind a championship won by Josef Newgarden or Scott Dixon or perhaps lost by Dixon or Simon Pagenaud.

Next: IndyCar driver power rankings

Do you think Josef Newgarden’s bold pass of Simon Pagenaud will end up, in some way, shape or form, being the difference in this season’s IndyCar championship? Let us know in the comments below, and be sure to follow along with Beyond the Flag for the latest news, opinions and analysis stemming from a number of different motorsports series. You don’t want to miss any of it. Also be sure to follow Beyond the Flag on both Instagram and Twitter.