Formula 1: Will Esteban Ocon replace Valtteri Bottas during the 2019 season?

Rumors have emerged that Esteban Ocon could replace Valtteri Bottas at Mercedes in the 2019 Formula 1 season. Will it happen?

Valtteri Bottas began driving for Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport in the 2017 Formula 1 season after spending his first four seasons in Formula 1 competing for Williams. He signed a one-year extension to remain with the team through the 2018 season before finishing in third place in the 2017 driver standings with three victories, which were the first three victories of his Formula 1 career.

Bottas signed another one-year contract extension to remain with the Brackley-based team through the 2019 season this past summer, and this contract extension include an additional one-year option that could keep the 29-year-old Finn with the Silver Arrows through at least the 2020 season.

However, following a recent statement by 1997 Formula 1 champion Jacques Villeneuve, there has been speculation that Bottas may end up being replaced at Mercedes not after the 2020 season and not after the 2019 season.

There is speculation that he will be replaced during the 2019 season.

Villeneuve believes that Esteban Ocon, the Mercedes junior driver who spent each of the last two seasons driving for Force India before being replaced by former Williams driver Lance Stroll for the 2019 season, will replace Bottas as a teammate to five-time Formula 1 champion Lewis Hamilton before the 2019 season comes to a close.

Here is what Villeneuve had to say about Ocon potentially replacing Bottas in the 2019 season, according to Express.

"“I think there is a possibility that Bottas will be replaced by Esteban Ocon during the 2019 season.”"

Bottas disagrees. Here is what he had to say about potentially being replaced by Ocon in the 2019 season, according to Express.

"“No, it’s not a concern. People are always talking and, for sure, every driver wants to move on with their own career, they want to grab the opportunities."

Will it happen?

It is rare, especially among top-tier teams, to have a driver replace another driver during a season. The last time this happened was when Max Verstappen and Daniil Kvyat swapped seats after the fourth race of the 2016 season. Verstappen was promoted to Red Bull Racing while Kvyat was demoted to Scuderia Toro Rosso, the Red Bull Racing junior team.

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Because Ocon is not set to compete as a full-time driver next season and there are no seats left open on the grid, Bottas would not even have a seat to switch into if this switch ended up taking place.

Bottas is coming off of a disappointing season during which he failed to win a single race in finished in fifth place in the driver standings. To put that in perspective, he finished in the top five in the driver standings in two of his four seasons driving for Williams, and Williams have not won a race since the 2012 season, the season during which Bottas was their reserve driver.

Meanwhile, Mercedes have earned 77 victories since Williams last earned one. Also, a Mercedes driver had not previously failed to win a race in a season since the 2011 season, which was three seasons before the V6 turbo hybrid era began.

Mercedes have dominated the V6 turbo hybrid era, as they have never failed to win a driver championship or a constructor championship in it.

Hamilton, meanwhile, earned a career-high 11 victories this past season as Bottas’s teammate en route to clinching his second consecutive championship and his fourth championship in the last five seasons.

Of course, team orders did take two potential victories by Bottas and give them to Hamilton. On new tires late in the German Grand Prix, Bottas was ordered not to pass Hamilton for the race lead and thus the victory, and in the Russian Grand Prix, he was ordered to let Hamilton pass him for the race lead and thus the victory.

And then, of course, there was the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the race that Bottas led with under three laps to go before he ran over a piece of debris and punctured the right rear tire of his car, effectively handing the victory to Hamilton. Had Bottas won this race, he would have led the driver standings for the first time in his career.

But even with all of this factored in, it became clear down the stretch that Bottas simply does not have what it takes to compete with Hamilton throughout an entire 21-race season. While there is an element of this that helps Mercedes, as it gives Hamilton, for lack of a better word, a “wingman” when it comes to potentially crucial races in the championship battle, there is an element that may potentially hurt them.

The 2019 championship battle is expected to be one of the closest in several seasons, as Scuderia Ferrari and Red Bull Racing are expected to closely challenge Mercedes to be the sport’s top team.

This means that Bottas will need to be at his absolute best for Mercedes to win their sixth consecutive constructor championship. Even simply playing a role in helping Hamilton win the driver championship may not be enough to satisfy the team next year.

If Bottas does not perform at a high level and this leads to Ferrari or Red Bull Racing threatening Mercedes’ chances of winning the constructor championship, this is where Ocon could potentially come into play.

If Mercedes feel that Ocon would give the team a better chance to win the constructor championship than Bottas without compromising Hamilton’s chances of winning a sixth driver championship, he could end up replacing Bottas during the 2019 season.

It certainly isn’t a likely scenario. But it is not one that can be ruled out. In fact, the only way to completely rule it out would be for Bottas start out hot next season and establish himself as a championship contender.

Do you believe that Esteban Ocon will replace Valtteri Bottas during the 2019 Formula 1 season? If not, do you believe that he will replace him before the 2020 season begins, or do you believe that Bottas will have his contract extended by Mercedes once again?