NASCAR Cup Series: Which ‘Big Three’ member will be most vulnerable in 2019?

The “Big Three” of the NASCAR Cup Series have advanced to the Championship 4 in three of the last four and both of the last two seasons. Which one of these three drivers will be most vulnerable in the 2019 season?

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch and Furniture Row Racing’s (now Joe Gibbs Racing’s) Martin Truex Jr. have become known as the “Big Three” in the NASCAR Cup Series.

This group of three drivers combined to win 20 of the 2018 season’s 36 races after combining to win six of the 2014 seasons’ 36 races, nine of the 2015 seasons’ 36 races, 12 of the 2016 season’s 36 races and 15 of the 2018 season’s 36 races.

Despite the recent “youth movement” that has taken place within the Cup Series, the “Big Three” just seem to keep getting better and better. In fact, these three drivers have occupied 11 of the 20 Championship 4 positions since the Championship 4 began upon the implementation of the current playoff format in the 2014 season.

The “Big Three” have gone to three of the last four and both of the last two Championship 4 rounds together, and many people believe that they will advance to what would be their fourth Championship 4 in five seasons and their third consecutive Championship 4 in the 2019 season.

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However, this is anything but a lock from happening for multiple reasons.

With that said, which driver of the “Big Three” is the driver who has the highest chance of failing to advance to the Championship 4 in the 2019 season?

If I had to pick the “Big Three” driver who I believe is most likely to fail to advance to the Championship 4 in the 2019 season, I would pick Truex Jr. This would be the case despite the fact that he was the highest finisher of the “Big Three” in the championship standings for the second consecutive season in 2018. He won the 2017 championship and finished in second place in the standings behind champion Joey Logano of Team Penske in the 2018 season.

Truex Jr. earned four victories in the 2018 season while Harvick and Busch earn earned a series-high eight, and he ended the season on a 17-race win drought. Harvick ended the season on a two-race win drought while Busch ended the season on a one-race win drought.

Truex Jr. also nearly missed out on advancing from the round of 12 to the round of 8, as he was below the round of 8 cut line at several points during the round of 12 finale at Kansas Speedway following a disappointing 23rd place finish, his worst finish of the playoffs, in the second of three races in the round of 12 at Talladega Superspeedway.

While Truex Jr. is set to make the transition from Furniture Row Racing to Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2019 season, this may be a move that comes with more growing pains than it does improvement in racing equipment and in his odds of getting back to the Championship 4 and winning what would be his second career Cup Series championship.

In the final three of the five seasons during the 38-year-old Mayetta, New Jersey native’s stint at the now defunct Furniture Row Racing team, the team had a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. The #78 Toyota that Truex Jr. drove in those three seasons was just as fast if not faster than Joe Gibbs Racing’s cars. He earned a total of 16 victories over the course of these three seasons, a win total that trailed only the win total of Busch (17) during that span.

Plus, as a Furniture Row Racing driver, Truex Jr. had just one teammate, Erik Jones, and he had this one teammate in just one season, the 2017 season.

Yes, he did win his first career Cup Series championship in the 2017 season, but it may take some time for Truex Jr. to truly adjust to driving for a four-car team after being pretty much the sole driver, no pun intended, of a team’s success for several seasons, especially when the level of success that he brought to that team was beyond immense. Having not won a race since slightly after the halfway point of the 2018 season may not play to his advantage in this adjustment process, either.

Will the “Big Three” of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. all get back to the Championship 4 in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season? If not, which of these three drivers has the highest chance to miss out on advancing to the Championship 4 in 2019?