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NASCAR Cup Series: Will the ‘Big Three’ return to the Championship 4 in 2019?

By Asher Fair

MIAMI BEACH, FL - NOVEMBER 15: (L-R) Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil, Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Toyota, Martin Truex JR., driver of the #78 Bass Pro Shops / 5-hour ENERGY Toyota and Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Jimmy John's Ford talk to the media during media day for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Miami Beach EDITION on November 15, 2018 in Miami Beach, Florida. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
MIAMI BEACH, FL - NOVEMBER 15: (L-R) Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil, Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Toyota, Martin Truex JR., driver of the #78 Bass Pro Shops / 5-hour ENERGY Toyota and Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Jimmy John's Ford talk to the media during media day for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Miami Beach EDITION on November 15, 2018 in Miami Beach, Florida. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images) /
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Will the “Big Three” of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. all return to the Championship 4 for the third consecutive NASCAR Cup Series season in 2019?

The current NASCAR Cup Series playoff format has been utilized since the 2014 season. Of the 20 Championship 4 positions, four in each season, that have been open since that time, 11 have been occupied by three drivers.

These three drivers are Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch and Furniture Row Racing’s (now Joe Gibbs Racing’s) Martin Truex Jr. They have become known as the “Big Three” for obvious reasons.

Harvick was the only one of the “Big Three” to advance to the Championship 4 in the 2014 season along with Richard Childress Racing’s Ryan Newman, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Team Penske’ s Joey Logano, and he went on to win the championship, which was the first championship of his career.

All three of the “Big Three” advanced to the Championship 4 in the 2015 season, as did Hendrick Motorsports’ Jeff Gordon, and it was Busch who ended up winning the championship, which was the first championship of his career as well.

In the 2016 season, the only “Big Three” member who advanced to the Championship 4 was Busch, but he failed to win the championship. Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson won it and Logano finished in second place while Busch had to settle for third. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Carl Edwards finished in fourth.

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In the 2017 season, all three of the “Big Three” advanced to the Championship 4 once again, this time with Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski as their common opponent, and Truex Jr. went on to win the first championship of his career. The “Big Three” all returned to the Championship 4 in the 2018 season, but they were all beaten by Logano.

Having now collectively advanced to three of the last four and both of the last two Championship 4 rounds, are the “Big Three” a lock to get back to the Championship 4 and compete to win the championship in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the 2019 season?

The 2018 season was by far the best season for the “Big Three” as a whole, as they combined to earn 20 victories. They earned six combined victories in the 2014 season, nine combined victories in the 2015 season, 12 combined victories in the 2016 season and 15 combined victories in the 2017 season.

In other words, they just keep getting better and better even when you think they can’t possibly get any better.

But by the nature of the playoff format, dominant regular seasons really only amount to the number of playoff points drivers carry through with them from round to round. It is still crucial to perform at a high level in the playoffs to advance to the Championship 4.

Two perfect examples of this from this past season are Truex Jr. nearly being eliminated at the end of the round of 12 and Harvick nearly being eliminated at the end of the round of 8. Both drivers slipped up in one way or another to put themselves in those positions.

With that in mind, the “Big Three” all advancing to the Championship 4 for the fourth time in five seasons and for the third consecutive season is anything but a lock, and that is the case without even mentioning the fact that there are several other drivers who all have legitimate chances to put themselves in positions compete for the championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

This past season alone, round of 8 drivers Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch of Stewart-Haas Racing and Chase Elliott of Hendrick Motorsports were just a circumstance or two away from advancing to the Championship 4 over one of the “Big Three”, as Logano locked himself into it by winning the opening round of 8 race at Martinsville Speedway, and there are several other drivers who have proven that they can win races, something that becomes even more important in the playoffs than it is in the “win-and-you’re-in” regular season.

While the odds may say that the “Big Three” are the three most likely drivers to advance to the Championship 4 in the 2019 season, it will be tough for all three of them to get back there together for the fourth time in five seasons and for the third consecutive season. In the 2019 season, expect one or two of them to get back, but certainly not none nor all three of them.

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Will the “Big Three” of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. all return to the Championship 4 in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season for what would be the third consecutive Championship 4 appearance by the group as a whole? If so, who will the fourth Championship 4 driver be, and if not, which other driver or drivers will replace which member or members of the “Big Three”? Finally, who will ultimately be crowned champion in 2019?

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