Formula 1: Will Valtteri Bottas return to Mercedes in 2020?

Valtteri Bottas has his work cut out for him if he wants to return to Mercedes in the 2020 Formula 1 season. Will he end up doing so?

Following the unexpected retirement of 2016 Formula 1 champion Nico Rosberg following the 2016 Formula 1 season, former Williams Martini Racing driver Valtteri Bottas was named Rosberg’s replacement and Lewis Hamilton’s teammate at Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport for the 2017 season.

Bottas signed a one-year deal in the summer of 2017 to continue driving for the Brackley-based team through the 2018 season, and he signed another one-year deal, this one containing an additional one-year option, in the summer of 2018 to continue driving for the team through at least the 2019 season and possibly the 2020 season.

The two seasons in which the 29-year-old Finn has driven for the Silver Arrows, however, have not resulted in him producing the caliber of results that Mercedes have grown accustomed to seeing out of their drivers, especially in the V6 turbo hybrid era, which began in the 2014 season.

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In two seasons driving for Mercedes, Bottas has finished in third (2017) and fifth place (2018) in the driver standings with 305 points (207) and 247 points (2018). Neither Rosberg nor Hamilton, the only other two drivers who have driven for Mercedes since the start of the V6 turbo hybrid era, have finished outside of the top two in the standings driving for the team in this era.

Rosberg’s lowest point total in a single season during his three seasons driving for the team in the V6 turbo hybrid era is 317 while Hamilton’s lowest point total in a single season during his five seasons driving for the team in this era is 363.

Bottas has also combined to earn just three victories in his two seasons (three in 2017 and zero in 2018) driving for Mercedes.

Meanwhile, Rosberg never won fewer than five races in a single season in any one of his three seasons driving for the team in the V6 turbo hybrid era, and Hamilton has never won fewer than nine races in a single season in any one of his five seasons driving for the team in this era.

As a result, there has been a lot of speculation that Mercedes reserve and test driver Esteban Ocon, who lost his ride at Racing Point for the 2019 season, will replace Bottas as Hamilton’s teammate in the 2020 season.

In fact, albeit to a lesser extent, there has even been speculation that the 22-year-old Frenchman will replace Bottas during the 2019 season if Mercedes feel that Bottas is hindering their chances of winning what would be their sixth consecutive constructor championship.

However, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has stated that Bottas can, in fact, return to the team in the 2020 season. Here is what he had to say about how he can do it, according to Autosport.

"“Valtteri knows exactly where he needs to be next year. He needs to have all the bad luck gone and perform on a level with Lewis. That is what is needed for the 2020 year. He knows very well that, and he has that in him. Lewis improving means Valtteri needs to improve. I’ve seen that improvement all the time with him, but you are going against a five-time world champion.“He needs a start where it’s right up there with Lewis and all the other drivers for the championship. That is what he needs. We are seeing the best Lewis that I’ve seen in the last six years, and there is a reason why he is a five-time world champion. Beating a five-time world champion at the peak of his performance, is going to be very difficult and Valtteri knows that. But I think that he has it in him.“He can win – he has proven it [in 2018] on a few occasions, but he had bad luck or was in a position where he could not win. If that turns into a positive momentum that is actually driving for the championship, I think that Valtteri can win the championship.”"

Will Bottas end up returning to Mercedes in the 2020 season?

As Wolff stated, it is certainly a tall task to compete with Hamilton, not only in an individual race or two but when it comes to competing with him over the course of an entire 21-race season for a championship.

However, it is no secret that Bottas has outperformed Hamilton before and that both misfortune and team orders cost him several potential victories in the 2018 season. Wolff knows this. That said, even had he earned these victories, he still would have been nowhere near Hamilton in the driver standings by the end of the season.

Bottas has his work cut out for him in the 2019 season if he wants to return to Mercedes in the 2020 season. At this point, Ocon appears to be the favorite to be Hamilton’s teammate in 2020. But Hamilton’s current teammate is slated to have 21 races over the course of roughly eight and a half months to change that.

Will Valtteri Bottas do enough in the 2019 Formula 1 season to warrant Mercedes re-signing him for the 2020 season? The 2019 season is scheduled to get underway from Melbourne Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne, Australia on Sunday, March 17 with the Australian Grand Prix. Be sure not to miss this race or any of the other 20 races on the 2019 schedule.