IndyCar’s 2020 Silly Season is all about Alexander Rossi

The 2020 IndyCar Silly Season, as usual, involves several moving parts and pieces, but all the key pieces relate to Alexander Rossi in some way.

As Andretti Autosport’s Alexander Rossi built up what became the largest winning margin in an IndyCar race in the last decade (28.4391 seconds) in last Sunday’s REV Group Grand Prix at Road America, fans were left wondering what his future holds given the fact that he is in another contract year driving for the four-car Honda-powered team.

Rossi is a driver who entered IndyCar ahead of the 2016 season after a brief stint driving for a backmarker Formula 1 team, Manor Marussia, and there has been a ton of speculation about his future pertaining to both Formula 1 and IndyCar ever since he arrived in America’s premier open-wheel racing series.

Throughout the latter half of the 2016 season, rumors circulated about the 27-year-old Nevada City, California native potentially signing with Team Penske as Juan Pablo Montoya’s replacement for the 2018 season, although they became slightly less prevalent as it became clearer that the team would sign rising star Josef Newgarden from Ed Carpenter Racing instead.

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Rumors about Andretti Autosport switching to Chevrolet ahead of the 2018 season sparked rumors that, given his ties to Honda, Rossi would leave the team to drive for either Chip Ganassi Racing or Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

But while Andretti Autosport driver and Honda driver Takuma Sato signed a contract with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing during his 2017 Indianapolis 500-winning season, likely to avoid being in a bind had Andretti Autosport switched to Chevrolet, Andretti Autosport stuck with Honda on a new two-year contract, and they retained Rossi on a new two-year contract.

Two years later, it’s essentially déjà vu for Andretti Autosport regarding the Chevrolet engine rumors and the Rossi rumors, but Rossi is a far more established driver than he was two years ago, and he is a perennial championship contender.

When Andretti Autosport signed him to this two-year contract, his lone victory was still his fuel mileage-induced Indy 500 victory in 2016. Now he has won seven races, and he has dominated the races en route to earning his most recent six victories, averaging a margin of victory of more than 11 seconds.

As RACER’s Robin Miller eloquently detailed in a recent article, the 2020 Silly Season revolves solely around Rossi. While there are still several pieces to the puzzle, where he ends up is a key component of literally everything else, sans maybe the situations of Chevrolet teams A.J. Foyt Enterprises, Ed Carpenter Racing and Carlin.

With the 17-race 2019 season more than half way over and the series currently in the midst of three-week break until the season’s 11th race upon us, it is time for 2020 Silly Season to officially commence.

There are several aspects to consider here as it pertains to Rossi, and there are several layers to each aspect.

First of all, Andretti Autosport want to retain Rossi, and Honda do as well. Secondly, Rossi supposedly wants to remain with both.

Here is what Andretti Autosport team owner Michael Andretti had to say about the matter just a few weeks ago as they await the sponsorship decision of NAPA Auto Parts, Rossi’s current primary sponsor, for beyond the conclusion of the 2019 season, according to RACER.

"“He (Rossi) wants to be here and we certainly want to keep him. I’ve just got to find the money.”"

Assuming they find the money, which they should given Honda’s prioritization of Rossi, end of story, right?

Wrong.

Team Penske have been rumored to land Rossi ahead of next season for quite some time, and it’s no secret that they’d like to do it.

That said, they are reportedly only going to run four cars in next year’s Indy 500, just like they did in last year’s and this year’s editions of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” since downsizing from a four-car full-time team to a three-car full-time team ahead of the 2018 season by cutting Helio Castroneves, the driver who has driven their fourth car in the last two Indy 500 races.

Would they really give up on the three-time Indy 500 winner who has driven for them in each of the last 19 Indy 500 races going back to 2001 to sign Rossi?

As far as anyone knows, there are no immediate plans for Team Penske to go back to being a four-car full-time team, and team president Tim Cindric is against the idea, although with Rossi being considered as the potential fourth driver, there may be some flexibility.

If there is one thing we do know about the prospect of Rossi, who drove for Acura Team Penske in two IMSA WeatherTech SportsCar Championship races earlier this year, signing with Team Penske, it’s that money won’t be a deterrent if it becomes a key factor in this decision. Team owner Roger Penske might, just might, be able to swing it — without breaking a sweat, that is.

If, however, there is no flexibility, who would Rossi even replace?

Newgarden, the 2017 champion, is not going anywhere. 2016 champion and 2019 Indy 500 champion Simon Pagenaud is not going anywhere. 2014 champion and 2018 Indy 500 champion Will Power is in the midst of his worst season a full-time Team Penske driver, yet he still sits in fifth place in the championship standings. He is not going anywhere.

The bottom line is this: pick any situation as far as these two key teams are concerned, and you’re still left with several possibilities for Rossi.

If Andretti Autosport stick with Honda, they could retain Rossi and we would be in a position where literally the only even remotely possible change would be Harding Steinbrenner Racing rookie Colton Herta and Andretti Autosport’s Zach Veach swapping seats given the technical alliance between the two teams.

That said, Veach is only in the second year of a three-year contract with Michael Andretti’s team, so there would have to be other factors at work for this to happen.

But even if Andretti Autosport stick with Honda, Team Penske could still lure Rossi away. Where would that leave Castroneves in his bid for a fourth Indy 500 victory? Would he miss the race for the first time since before he made his debut in it?

Would Herta replace Rossi behind the wheel of the #27 Honda? Would Red Bull Junior Team driver Patricio O’Ward give up a possible future in Formula 1 to drive full-time for Andretti Autosport, the team for which he won the 2018 Indy Lights championship, in one of the most desirable seats on the grid? Would Veach stay put? Would Andretti Autosport remain a four-car team?

If Andretti Autosport switch to Chevrolet, similar possibilities would emerge as far as the ramifications of Rossi staying or leaving to drive for Team Penske. However, there would be the additional possibility of Honda still managing to retain Rossi, meaning that he would not drive for either one of the sport’s top two teams.

Would he drive for Chip Ganassi Racing as their third driver? How about Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Arrow Schmidt Peterson Motorsports or Dale Coyne Racing, the other three full-time two-car Honda teams? If not, would he replace one of the drivers who currently drives for one of these teams? Once again, would Andretti Autosport remain a four-car team?

Suffice it to say that no one has any clue, and Rossi isn’t afraid to make sure it stays that way, at least for now. When asked to discuss the matter, here is what he had to say, according to RACER.

"“I’m sorry, I just can’t. It’s very, very sensitive.”"

When asked about the possibility of leaving Andretti Autosport to drive for Team Penske, here is what he added.

"“It’s in God’s hands.”"

It wouldn’t surprise me if God is literally the only one who knows anything whatsoever about how this situation might play out.

When the Alexander Rossi domino falls, what will that mean for the rest of the 2020 IndyCar lineup? Which drivers will be driving for which teams, how many drivers will be driving for each team, and which teams will be aligned with which engine manufacturers?