With six races remaining in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, which drivers are in position to qualify for the playoffs and which aren’t?
Of the 26 NASCAR Cup Series races on the schedule prior to the four-round, 10-race, 16-driver playoffs, 20 have been completed, leaving only six races to be contested before the playoff field will be set.
With races at Pocono Raceway, Watkins Glen International, Michigan International Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, Darlington Raceway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway still on the schedule before the playoffs begin, nine drivers have already clinched playoff berths.
These nine drivers have already locked themselves into the playoffs by winning at least one of the season’s first nine races. With only six races remaining on the regular season schedule, there is no way that the regular season can feature more than 16 different winners.
Here are these nine drivers.
NOTE: PP = playoff points.
Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
1st – Kyle Busch, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 WINS (27 PP (-))
2nd – Martin Truex Jr., #19, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 4 WINS (22 PP (-5))
3rd – Brad Keselowski, #2, Team Penske, Ford: 3 WINS (19 PP (-8))
4th – Joey Logano, #22, Team Penske, Ford: 2 WINS (17 PP (-10))
5th – Denny Hamlin, #11, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 2 WINS (13 PP (-14))
6th – Kevin Harvick, #4, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 1 WIN (9 PP (-18))
7th – Chase Elliott, #9, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 WIN (7 PP (-20))
8th – Kurt Busch, #1, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 1 WIN (6 PP (-21))
9th – Alex Bowman, #88, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 1 WIN (5 PP (-22))
Seven drivers who have not yet won a race this season but are currently above the playoff cut line while two drivers are within one race’s worth of points below it. Here is how these nine drivers stack up against one another.
Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Manufacturer: Points (Behind)
10th – Aric Almirola, #10, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 586 (+98)
11th – Ryan Blaney, #12, Team Penske, Ford: 572 (+84)
12th – William Byron, #24, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 549 (+61)
13th – Kyle Larson, #42, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet: 519 (+31)
14th – Erik Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota: 516 (+28)
15th – Ryan Newman, #6, Roush Fenway Racing, Ford: 509 (+21)
16th – Clint Bowyer, #14, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 505 (+17)
————————— PLAYOFF CUT LINE —————————
17th – Jimmie Johnson, #48, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet: 488 (-17)
17th – Daniel Suarez, #41, Stewart-Haas Racing, Ford: 488 (-17)
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There are 60 points on the table in each race for each driver, although scoring all 60 points (or any amount over 55) would guarantee that that driver will have won the race and locked up his playoff berth anyway.
While there is certainly a lot that can change in the matter of six races, as one bad race could put a huge dent in anybody’s chances to get into the playoffs and an upset winner from outside of the top 16 in the championship standings could really shake up the playoff picture, it looks safe to say that Aric Almirola, Ryan Blaney and William Byron will be in the playoffs even if they don’t win any of these six races.
Beyond the top 12, however, it is anybody’s guess.
Not too long ago, both Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez were at least 40 points above the playoff cut line looking fairly safe. Now the playoff cut line is between them, and Jimmie Johnson could potentially spoil the party for both of them if he passes Bowyer but Suarez doesn’t, which would leave half of Stewart-Haas Racing out of the playoffs following a season during which they earned a series-high 12 victories.
Johnson hasn’t recorded a finish of better than 30th place in a few races, but he has been running better as a whole really than he has at any point in the last two-plus years. The seven-time champion is in a better position than Suarez, who is still seeking his first career Cup Series victory, to advance to the playoffs on points.
We have seen Kyle Larson lose big leads over the playoff cut line in the playoffs themselves in recent years, so 31 points is anything but comfortable for him, especially since he hasn’t won a race in almost two years. That said, it is hard to see at least four of the five drivers below him in the top 18 passing him before the regular season ends.
Erik Jones seems to be heating up at the right time both in terms of his playoff aspirations and his aspirations to return to Joe Gibbs Racing next season, especially with rumors that he may be replaced by Christopher Bell. He has gone from two positions below the playoff cut line to now three positions ahead of it in the last two races.
Ryan Newman has had an amazing yet underappreciated first season driving for Roush Fenway Racing. Whether or not he can sustain that level of success and maintain his 21-point lead over the playoff cut line will be something to watch over the course of the regular season’s final six races.
Bowyer has struggled mightily as of late, so the fact that he is still 17 points above the playoff cut line should bode well for him. All he really needs to do is get back to consistently recording top 10 or even top 15 finishes to solidify his position in the top 16 in the playoff picture.
Which seven drivers will join the nine drivers who have already won a race in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season in the playoffs? The playoffs are not scheduled to get underway for over a month and a half, but each of the regular season’s final six races should prove crucial in the playoff hunt.