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IndyCar: How DragonSpeed’s Laguna Seca absence could impact the championship

By Asher Fair

7 Sep 1997: General view of the Toyota Grand Prix at Laguna Seca in Monterrey, California. Mandatory Credit: Darrell Ingham /Allsport
7 Sep 1997: General view of the Toyota Grand Prix at Laguna Seca in Monterrey, California. Mandatory Credit: Darrell Ingham /Allsport /
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The absence of DragonSpeed in the 2019 IndyCar season finale at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca could impact the championship battle.

DragonSpeed and Ben Hanley reportedly had plans to compete in the 2019 IndyCar season finale, the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey, at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca after visa issues prevented them from competing in the race at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in late July.

But the entry list for Sunday’s 90-lap race around the 11-turn, 2.238-mile (3.602-kilometer) WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca natural terrain road course in Monterey, California does not include the #81 DragonSpeed Chevrolet.

DragonSpeed competed in just three races this season despite having plans to compete in five, and they recorded finishes of 18th, 21st and 32nd place for an average of 23.67.

The 18th place finish came in the season opener on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida, and 18th was the worst among the drivers who finished the race.

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The 21st place finish came in the season’s third race at Barber Motorsports Park, and 21st was the worst among drivers who finished the race and did not crash during it (Carlin’s Max Chilton crashed by still finished in 22nd).

The 32nd place finish came in the 103rd running of the Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway after a driveshaft issue prevented the #81 Chevrolet from running past lap 55 of the race’s 200 laps.

As a result, the absence of the #81 Chevrolet from the entry list for the season finale seems insignificant.

But it could impact the championship.

There are 24 drivers slated to compete in this race. A 24th place finish is worth six points, so it is worth 12 points because the season finale is a double points-paying race. A win is worth 50 points, so it is worth 100 points in this race. As a result, between 12 and 104 points (four bonus points; not doubled) are on the table for each driver in this race.

Had 25 drivers competed in this race, between 10 and 104 points would have been on the table, as a 25th place finish is worth five points in a regular race and 10 in this race.

Again, this does not seem significant. But there is one scenario in which it could have a big impact (not factoring in bonus points).

Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden leads the championship standings by 41 points over Andretti Autosport’s Alexander Rossi (593 to 552) in second place heading into the 17th and final race of the season. Team Penske’s Simon Pagenaud sits in third with 551 points and Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon sits in fourth with 508.

With 25 drivers entered into this race, Rossi would have had championship scenarios by finishing anywhere from first through seventh place. Had he finished in seventh, Newgarden would have had to finish in 25th for Rossi to win the championship, assuming Rossi also finished ahead of Pagenaud and Dixon didn’t win. Rossi would have won the championship by a score of 604 to 603 over Newgarden.

Now Newgarden’s minimum point total in this race is 12, meaning it is 605 for the season. So if Rossi finishes in seventh place, he has no possible way of winning the championship. At worst, he needs to finish in sixth (ahead of Pagenaud and without Dixon winning) with Newgarden finishing in 23rd or 24th to win either by a score of 608 to 607 or 608 to 605.

The odds of Newgarden finishing in 25th place to begin with were slim to none, but you never know what kind of first-lap pileups or mechanical issues might come about. Newgarden was involved in a first-lap incident in the most recent race at Portland International Raceway, although he escaped and rallied to finish in fifth.

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Will DragonSpeed’s absence prove to be significant in the 2019 IndyCar championship battle? Odds are, the answer to that question is no.

Josef Newgarden would need to crash on the opening lap (or something similar) with Alexander Rossi going on to finish in seventh place for this absence to actually affect the championship battle. This particular effect would be Newgarden winning with 24 cars instead of Rossi winning with 25.

Tune in to NBC at 2:30 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey from WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca to find out who will ultimately be crowned champion. The race is scheduled to go green at 3:00 p.m. ET.