IndyCar: Simon Pagenaud's 2019 championship-clinching scenarios

How can Simon Pagenaud clinch the 2019 IndyCar championship in the season finale at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca, the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey?

For the 14th consecutive season, the IndyCar championship battle will come down to the season finale. The 2019 season finale, the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey, is scheduled to take place this Sunday, September 22 at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca.

A total of 24 drivers are set to compete in this race, this 90-lap double points-paying race, around the 11-turn, 2.238-mile (3.602-kilometer) WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca natural terrain road course in Monterey, California.

Bonus points, however, are not doubled, so between 12 and 104 points are on the table for each driver in this race. As a result, four drivers are mathematically eligible to win the championship heading into it.

One of these four drivers is Team Penske’s Simon Pagenaud, the 2016 champion.

Here is how these four drivers stack up against one another in the championship standings.

Rank – Driver, Car, Team, Engine: Points (Behind)
1st – Josef Newgarden, #2, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 593 (0)
2nd – Alexander Rossi, #27, Andretti Autosport, Honda: 552 (-41)
3rd – Simon Pagenaud, #22, Team Penske, Chevrolet: 551 (-42)
4th – Scott Dixon, #9, Chip Ganassi Racing, Honda: 508 (-85)

Race victory totals serve as the tiebreaker, and further tiebreakers are determined by top finishes. Newgarden has won four races so far this season. Rossi has won two, Pagenaud has won three and Dixon has won two.

Here is how Pagenaud can become the 2019 IndyCar champion.

NOTE: Bonus points (aside of the guaranteed +1 for the race winner) are not factored into this list.

Simon Pagenaud, No. 22 Team Penske Chevrolet

Here are the scenarios by which Simon Pagenaud can win his second career IndyCar championship.

With a win…

Pagenaud will have 652 points
Josef Newgarden must finish in sixth place (649 points) or lower

With a 2nd place finish…

Pagenaud will have 631 points
Newgarden must finish in 12th place (629 points) or lower
Alexander Rossi must finish in third place (622 points) or lower

With a 3rd place finish…

Pagenaud will have 621 points
Newgarden must finish in 17th place (619 points) or lower
Rossi must finish in fourth place (616 points) or lower

With a 4th place finish…

Pagenaud will have 615 points
Newgarden must finish in 20th place (613 points) or lower
Rossi must finish in fifth place (612 points) or lower

With a 5th place finish…

Pagenaud will have 611 points
Newgarden must finish in 22nd place (609 points) or lower
Rossi must finish in sixth place (608 points) or lower

With a 6th place finish…

Pagenaud will have 607 points
Newgarden must finish in 24th place (605 points)
Rossi must finish in seventh place (604 points) or lower
Scott Dixon must finish in second place (588 points) or lower

With a 7th place finish or lower…

Pagenaud cannot win the championship

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Will Simon Pagenaud secure his second career IndyCar championship in this Sunday’s Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey? Tune in to NBC at 2:30 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of this race, which is scheduled to begin shortly thereafter at 3:00 p.m. ET, from WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca.

IndyCar: Simon Pagenaud’s 2019 championship-clinching scenarios

By Asher Fair | Sep 18, 2019