Formula 1: Who will be next to sign a long-term contract?

Charles Leclerc recently signed with Ferrari through the 2024 Formula 1 season, giving him the longest contract in the sport. Who will be the next to sign a long-term deal?

When Charles Leclerc signed with Ferrari back in September of 2018 to replace 2007 Formula 1 champion Kimi Raikkonen beginning in the 2019 season, then team principal Maurizio Arrivabene stated that the plan was for him to be with the team through at least the 2022 season.

However, while Leclerc had already been confirmed by the team for the 2020 season, it took until late December to officially confirm that he is, in fact, under contract through 2022.

They did it by announcing a mega-contract extension to keep the 22-year-old Monegasque in Maranello for at least another five years through the 2024 season.

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As of now, there are only four drivers under contract for the 2021 season, and Leclerc’s deal is the longest as far as its expiration year by a full two years — and by a full three years over all but one driver.

In addition to Leclerc, these drivers are Racing Point’s Sergio Perez, Renault’s Esteban Ocon and Williams’ George Russell.

Perez signed a three-year contract extension in August to remain with Racing Point through the 2022 season while Ocon’s initial Renault deal is for two years, keeping him with the French marque through 2021. Williams confirmed that Russell is their through 2021 amid speculation that he would make the move to Mercedes after 2020.

Who will be the next to sign a long-term deal?

Other than these four drivers, there are 16 other drivers slated to compete in the 2020 season. Of these 16 drivers, six are over 30 years old (Lewis Hamilton, 34, Valtteri Bottas, 30, Sebastian Vettel, 32, Romain Grosjean, 33, Daniel Ricciardo, 30, and Kimi Raikkonen, 40), so it’s hard to see any of them getting anything more than a two-year deal.

Several of the other 10 drivers were in question for 2020, so it would seem safe to rule them out. Among those drivers are Antonio Giovinazzi, Pierre Gasly and Daniil Kvyat. Nicholas Latifi is the lone rookie in next year’s field, so he could be considered a part of this group.

That leaves six drivers: Max Verstappen, Alexander Albon, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz Jr.

Verstappen is widely considered the top pending free agent after 2020. The 22-year-old Dutchman is set to enter a contract year with Red Bull Racing, and if they cannot provide him with a championship-caliber car, he could very well be on his way.

For that reason, it’s hard to see him committing long-term anywhere this early, but if the right opportunity arises at Red Bull Racing or elsewhere (likely Mercedes to replace either Hamilton or Bottas), don’t rule it out.

Albon could very well end up with a long-term deal at Red Bull Racing given Verstappen’s uncertain future there. He proved himself worthy of a seat throughout his nine-race stint at the Milton Keynes-based team in 2019, although improvement will be needed in 2020 to establish himself as a long-term option.

Magnussen drives for Haas alongside Grosjean. While he has done so since 2017, a long-term deal doesn’t even seem to be remotely an option at this point for obvious reasons we won’t get into.

Stroll drives for his father’s team at Racing Point, which makes it easy to see him being extended for several years, but at the same time, they can also afford to string him along year by year knowing he’s not going anywhere. They already hinted at a long-term future even with his recent one-year extension.

Norris and Sainz both drive for McLaren, and the camaraderie that they developed in their first year together in 2019 was second to none.

In fact, both are in situations that Leclerc was in prior to signing his recent extension. While neither driver is technically “confirmed” for beyond 2020, Norris’s multi-year contract extension that he signed in July was reportedly for through 2022, and Sainz’s multi-year deal that he signed in August of 2018 reportedly contains an option for beyond 2020.

So it would not be a surprise to see either driver officially sign a long-term deal at some point in the near future, especially with McLaren having just had their best season since 2012 with both of them in the driver lineup and with the Woking-based team slated to switch from Renault engines to Mercedes engines in 2021 as they seek to get back in the win column for the first time in several years after getting back to the podium for the first time in more than five years in 2019.

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After Charles Leclerc was confirmed by Ferrari for another half-decade, who will be the next Formula 1 driver to sign a long-term contract extension? Look for one or both of the McLaren drivers or possibly Alexander Albon to be that driver, or possibly the highly touted Max Verstappen if the right opportunity arises.

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