Formula 1: Can Mercedes survive without Lewis Hamilton?
By Asher Fair
Can Mercedes survive in Formula 1 without Lewis Hamilton as it pertains to finding the right replacement if he decides to leave the team?
Since the 2014 Formula 1 season began and the V6 turbo hybrid era began along with it, nobody has had anything for Mercedes.
They have won six consecutive constructor championships and become the first team in Formula 1 history to win six consecutive driver championships, and at the center of that success has been Lewis Hamilton.
Hamilton, a six-time world champion, joined the Silver Arrows ahead of the 2013 season, when the team were still somewhat of an also-ran behind dominant Red Bull Racing, which won four straight constructor and driver championships from 2010 to 2013.
More from Formula One
- Formula 1: Top Red Bull threat identified for 2024
- Formula 1: Why the Max Verstappen retirement obsession?
- Formula 1: Williams ‘mistake’ hints Logan Sargeant’s future
- Formula 1 awaiting key confirmation for 2024 season
- Formula 1: The ‘championship’ Max Verstappen only leads by 3 points
In 2014, Hamilton won his second world championship, having won his first in 2008 driving for McLaren, and that began a dominant run. He has now won five of the last six championships, only failing to win in 2016 when teammate Nico Rosberg got the better of him by only five points.
But his contract, which he extended by two years back in July of 2018, with Mercedes expires at the end of the 2020 season, and while there are reports that he will be back with the team on another two-year extension amid a rumored switch to Ferrari, nothing has been confirmed as of yet.
Mercedes team principal and CEO Toto Wolff addressed the matter and stated that while bringing Hamilton back remains the team’s priority, as it should be given the success he has had over the last six years, the team are well-suited to survive without him.
Here is what he had to say about the matter, according to FormulaRapida.
"“I know that sounds like a little bit of philosophical guru talk, but when Nico decided to quit, my initial reaction was actually the opportunity provided to us, and I think that the choice with Valtteri [Bottas] proved to be the right choice. So, I still very much hope that our relationship continues, but I am not totally in control of that, so, if one important member breaks out, that provides certainly, risk and opportunity at the same time.“But I think as long as we are able to produce a quick car, and a powerful engine, we will always have opportunity to decide who drives the car. And I think there will be no doubt that Lewis is our priority. We’ve tried to make it work with the team. And I have tried to make it work with Lewis. But the most important is that we have a good car.”"
But is this really the case?
Wolff likened the potential departure of Hamilton to the unexpected departure of Rosberg, and indeed, Mercedes have won three more constructor and driver championships since Bottas replaced the 2016 world champion ahead of the 2017 season.
But the bottom line is this: they still have Hamilton, and he has had just as much success now as he did during the Rosberg era.
Hamilton has won 31 races since Bottas became his teammate. He also won 31 races from 2014 to 2016.
But Rosberg won 20 races during these three seasons. Bottas has only earned seven victories since the 2017 season, and he has given nobody reason to believe that he is ready to compete for a championship. While Hamilton hasn’t won fewer than nine races since the 2013 season, Bottas’s single-season career-high is four wins.
We can spend all day talking about how good Mercedes’ car is. But the driver is still obviously a major factor in the team’s success. If Hamilton walks away, is Bottas really the guy to lead them into the future?
Max Verstappen, presumably their former number one target, is off the table through the 2023 season, having recently signed a three-year contract extension with Red Bull Racing.
Mercedes junior driver George Russell is an option, but he is reportedly set to compete for Williams through at least the 2021 season, at least according to deputy team principal Claire Williams when discussing rumors of him leaving for the factory Mercedes team.
Esteban Ocon, who nearly replaced Bottas ahead of the 2020 season, is now no longer under contract with Mercedes. He is still managed by Mercedes, but that has nothing to do with his former role as a reserve and test driver for the team. He is a Renault driver now, and he is not on loan.
Other than that, Daniel Ricciardo is really the only potential standout who could become available. His contract with Renault ends after the 2020 season, and the team have already hinted that they won’t bring him back. During his time at Red Bull Racing, he had been rumored as a possible future Mercedes driver, so a move would make sense.
While Mercedes would have a few good options to replace Lewis Hamilton if he leaves the team, there is no doubt that they are in a far better place with him around. Yes, their car is the car to beat, but would they be able to continue winning championship after championship without him? At some point, whether that be in 2021 or several years down the road, that question will need to be answered.