NASCAR: Which Silly Season domino will be next to fall?

Ryan Blaney’s contract extension with Team Penske was expected but still significant. What could be the next Silly Season domino to fall for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season?

Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney entered the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series as one of several drivers among the top-tier teams without a contract to continue competing in the 2021 season.

In total, 16 of the 17 drivers who drove for Team Penske, Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, Hendrick Motorsports or Chip Ganassi Racing last year returned to those teams this year, with the only change being Cole Custer replacing Daniel Suarez at Stewart-Haas Racing.

But entering the 2020 season, only eight of these 17 drivers had contracts to return to their teams in 2021. Blaney became the ninth, signing a multi-year contract extension with Roger Penske’s organization ahead of the most recent race at Phoenix Raceway in early March.

More from NASCAR Cup Series

Now Blaney and Joey Logano are under contract with Team Penske while Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are under contract with Joe Gibbs Racing, Kevin Harvick is under contract with Stewart-Haas Racing, William Byron and Chase Elliott are under contract with Hendrick Motorsports and Kurt Busch is under contract at Chip Ganassi Racing.

Blaney’s multi-year contract extension to continue driving the #12 Ford was expected, despite rumors that he may leave the team to replace seven-time Jimmie Johnson behind the wheel of the #48 Chevrolet at Hendrick Motorsports after Johnson retires following the 2020 season. But it was still a huge deal because it sent Silly Season into motion quite early.

Of course, after that weekend’s race at the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) oval in Avondale, Arizona, the season was brought to an abrupt halt by the coronavirus pandemic, and while action is scheduled to resume in just under a month on Saturday, May 9 at Martinsville Speedway, there is mounting doubt that this will indeed serve as the return date.

This has given teams time to assess their current driver situations, but it hasn’t given them any additional races on which to base their assessments.

So naturally, there haven’t been any more new contracts or contract extensions announced during this stoppage, and there likely won’t be unless it lasts for several more months and teams are forced to shift their focus to 2021 — unless, of course, there were already talks that were far enough along that deals could be announced whenever.

With Blaney’s deal out of the way and several high-profile free agents still on the market, which Silly Season domino will be the next to fall?

It likely won’t be at Joe Gibbs Racing. Erik Jones is the only driver not under contract through 2021, and it took the team until last September to even extend his deal though 2020.

Christopher Bell, who drives for the Joe Gibbs Racing-affiliated Leavine Family Racing and is under contract with Toyota, would likely be his replacement if he is released, but again, that likely won’t be known for several months.

Stewart-Haas Racing are also not known for shoring up their driver lineup for the following season until late in the season or even in the offseason. So even with only one of their four drivers under contract for next year, don’t expect any changes there in the near future.

That leaves three teams and four drivers who could be the next to set off a chain reaction: Team Penske with Brad Keselowski, Chip Ganassi Racing with Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports with Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson.

Here’s what we know.

Bowman may not have a deal to return to Rick Hendrick’s team, but all signs point to that changing. His dominant victory at Auto Club Speedway in early March bodes particularly well for him. Meanwhile, we know that Johnson is set to retire after the 2020 season — unless the season ends up being drastically shortened or canceled due to the pandemic.

That takes us back to Keselowski and Larson. Keselowski has stated that negotiations have not yet begun regarding an extension with Team Penske, but he has stated that he won’t be “dialing out” looking for another ride. He did, however, say that he would listen to anybody who “dials in”. Larson’s current situation has not been widely discussed.

Here’s where the next domino could fall.

Keselowski could stay with Team Penske and Larson could stay at Chip Ganassi Racing, which would be the simplest solution, as it would not affect Stewart-Haas Racing’s plans and it would leave Hendrick Motorsports needing to find a replacement for Johnson.

But both drivers have been linked to several other teams, including both Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing. Keselowski has also been mentioned as a dark horse replacement candidate for Larson if Larson leaves Chip Ganassi Racing for one of these two teams.

Wherever they don’t sign, whether that be their current teams or their other rumored landing spots, those teams will be in position to seek another driver or drivers. This is especially significant because regardless, at least one new driver will be introduced to one of the sport’s top teams with Johnson set to retire.

The question is this: will that new driver actually end up at Hendrick Motorsports, or will Keselowski or Larson move to Hendrick Motorsports so that this new driver ends up at another team? If one of these two drivers does replace Johnson, where will the other one end up?

Next. Top 10 NASCAR drivers of all-time. dark

The fall of the next Silly Season domino could be a few months away. But once it falls, expect a chain reaction to follow as it pertains to confirming the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series driver lineup, especially if that domino has anything to do with the contracts of Brad Keselowski or Kyle Larson. Things have the potential to get chaotic.

Home/NASCAR Cup Series