NASCAR: The championship favorite heading into Kansas

There is one clear favorite to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship as the round of 8 continues this afternoon at Kansas Speedway.

Another spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 is up for grabs this afternoon at Kansas Speedway following last Sunday afternoon’s round of 8 opener at Texas Motor Speedway.

Last year, it was the round of 8 race at Texas Motor Speedway which produced a non-championship eligible winner, which left an additional Championship 4 spot open on points.

But last year, that race was the second of three races in the round after the race at Kansas Speedway saw Team Penske’s Joey Logano secure his Championship 4 berth.

Will this year’s middle race of the round of 8 see a driver secure a Championship 4 spot, or will three spots be open heading into the round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway like there were last year?

Regardless of what happens this afternoon, one driver is sitting pretty over the next two weeks, and that is Texas Motor Speedway race winner Kyle Larson.

With his series-leading eighth (nobody else has more than four) victory of the season and series-leading third playoff victory last Sunday, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has secured the first Championship 4 berth of his career.

Larson was long seen as a Championship 4 lock even before officially becoming one, and now that he has, on paper, more than twice as much of a chance as any of the other remaining seven contenders to win the title, his odds to win the title reflect that.

If you were to evenly distribute each remaining driver’s chance to win the championship and ignore the gaps to the cut line, they would look like this.

• Kyle Larson: 25% (1/4)
• Denny Hamlin: 10.71% (3/28)
• Ryan Blaney: 10.71%
• Kyle Busch: 10.71%
• Chase Elliott: 10.71%
• Martin Truex Jr.: 10.71%
• Brad Keselowski: 10.71%
• Joey Logano: 10.71%

But you obviously cannot ignore that cut line, so here are the full betting odds to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship, courtesy of WynnBET.

• Kyle Larson: +150
• Denny Hamlin: +475
• Ryan Blaney: +500
• Kyle Busch: +650
• Chase Elliott: +750
• Martin Truex Jr.: +1100
• Brad Keselowski: +1600
• Joey Logano: +2500

Make your pick now at WynnBET!

Earlier this month, I wrote about Larson’s odds surprisingly going from +200 to +225 from the start of the round of 12 to the start of the round of 8, a move that didn’t make much sense considering the fact that he won a race in the round of 12 and now has seven, not 11, other drivers with whom to contend.

So a move that should have been made weeks ago was finally made when Larson won the round of 8 opener to lock himself into the Championship 4, meaning he will have just three others with whom to contend.

Even though he was effectively a lock for the championship round already, it took him *officially* sealing his bid to see his odds move to +150.

When he was listed at +225, I was adamant that if you wanted to bet on him, bet now; it was obvious that his odds would eventually move to something much less attractive, and they did.

But now I would recommend waiting, not because I think he is any less strong of a candidate to win the title, but because of the fact that there is bound to be very little, if any, change in his odds in the two races before the championship decider. So you can likely get him at +150, or something very similar, two weeks from now because he is already locked in.

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The smart thing to do now is hold off on Larson until you see which drivers are set to join him in the winner-take-all season finale. But in the meantime, if there is a driver (or drivers) you like to advance to the Championship 4 and win, now is the time to bet, as nobody is listed with odds shorter than +475 (Denny Hamlin).

So if you make the (risky) assumption that Larson won’t win the title, you can bet on as many as five of the other seven drivers and make money as long as one of them wins.

But I wouldn’t wait on this. If a round of 8 driver locks up a Championship 4 bid this afternoon by winning at Kansas Speedway, his odds will likely move into the +200 to +300 range.

NBC Sports Network is set to broadcast the Hollywood Casino 400 live from Kansas Speedway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET this afternoon. Be sure to start your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not already done so!