NASCAR: The biggest championship underdog heading into Kansas

One driver enters the second race of the round of 8 of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs well below the Championship 4 cut line.

The second of three races in the final pre-Championship 4 round of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is scheduled to take place this afternoon at Kansas Speedway.

The round of 8 opener, which was held at Kansas Speedway last year, was contested at Texas Motor Speedway, which had been the second of three tracks in this semifinal round over the last several seasons, last Sunday, and it was won by Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson.

Most of the other drivers still in championship contention experienced some kind of issue during the 334-lap race around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) oval in Fort Worth, Texas, but none more so than Team Penske’s Joey Logano.

Logano’s race ended early when his #22 Ford experienced an engine failure, marring him well below the Championship 4 cut line (-43).

The driver right above him, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., crashed out late after contact with a non-playoff driver. Truex’s gap to the cut line (-22), however, is only one point more than Logano’s gap to Truex (-21).

So the 2018 champion has his work cut out for him, and his odds to win the championship reflect that.

Here are the full betting odds to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship, courtesy of WynnBET.

• Kyle Larson: +150
• Denny Hamlin: +475
• Ryan Blaney: +500
• Kyle Busch: +650
• Chase Elliott: +750
• Martin Truex Jr.: +1100
• Brad Keselowski: +1600
• Joey Logano: +2500

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But are odds of +2500, which make him more than twice as much of a long shot as everybody else except for teammate Brad Keselowski (-15) to win the title, a bargain for Logano?

There are a few things to look at here. One, as silly as it seems, is that it is 2021; Logano has made it to the Championship 4 only in even years (2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020) ever since the current format began in 2014, so the superstitious readers may want to hold off on trying to make a big buck here.

In 2016, 2018 and 2020, he advanced to the Championship 4 with a win in the round of 8. And in 2018 and 2020, he did it with a win at one of the two remaining round of 8 tracks. In 2018, he had just one win entering the round of 8, just like he does this year this year, and he won the race at Martinsville Speedway to advance. He went on to win the title.

In 2020, he had just two wins (none since March, just like he does this year), but he won the race at Kansas Speedway to advance. He led the championship race late before being passed by eventual race winner and champion Chase Elliott (as well as Keselowski).

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It’s no secret that Team Penske don’t seem to have the best speed at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, but the strength of Keselowski at both Kansas Speedway (in May, third place) and Texas Motor Speedway last week (fourth) show that success can be had by Roger Penske’s team, including Logano.

And while it is an odd year, nobody has been more opportunistic in these types of situations than Logano has in recent years.

Tune in to NBC Sports Network at 3:00 p.m. ET this afternoon for the live broadcast of the Hollywood Casino 400 from Kansas Speedway. Start your free trial of FuboTV today if you have not done so!