NASCAR: Predicting each driver’s new championship odds

The new odds for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 have not yet been released by WynnBET, so here’s our best guess at what they will look like.

Kyle Larson earned his third consecutive NASCAR Cup Series playoff victory — his second in a row to start the the round of 8 — in Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway.

Larson had already locked himself into the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway by winning at Texas Motor Speedway last Sunday, so all his win at Kansas Speedway did was leave three spots, not two, open in the winner-take-all round heading into the round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway this Sunday.

Take a look at the playoff picture after the second of three races in the semifinal round.

Rank – Driver – Points (Behind)
1 – Kyle Larson – 4181 (LOCKED IN; 2 WINS)
2 – Chase Elliott – 4107 (+34)
3 – Denny Hamlin – 4105 (+32)
4 – Kyle Busch – 4074 (+1)
———-CHAMPIONSHIP 4 CUT LINE———-
5 – Ryan Blaney – 4073 (-1)
6 – Martin Truex Jr. – 4071 (-3)
7 – Brad Keselowski – 4068 (-6)
8 – Joey Logano – 4048 (-26)

WynnBET have yet to reveal their updated NASCAR Cup Series championship odds following Sunday’s race, but based on what they were before the race, take a look at where we’re expecting to see changes with two races to go on this year’s schedule.

1. Kyle Larson (Odds prediction: +150 to +125)

Even without needing a win, Kyle Larson kept up his momentum at Kansas Speedway. He continues to prove himself as the prohibitive championship favorite.

2. Chase Elliott (Odds prediction: +750 to +350)

Chase Elliott is suddenly sitting in a good position to get to the Championship 4, perhaps even if an upset winner in the round of 8 finale swipes one of the three remaining spots. While largely overshadowed by Larson’s success, the 2021 season has arguably been his best season — and unlike in years past, he can say that he has been here before.

3. Denny Hamlin (Odds prediction: +475 to +425)

Denny Hamlin is in a pretty good spot as well, but which will the movement in his odds reflect more: his chance to get to the Championship 4 increasing, or his chance to finally win a title doing so? Ask yourself that question if/when you bet.

4. Kyle Busch (Odds prediction: stays at +650)

A miserable race at Kansas Speedway saw Kyle Busch stay above the cut line thanks to Austin Dillon unintentionally taking out Ryan Blaney. It was probably the most productive/least harmful 28th place/six laps down finish of his career.

Be sure to make your pick on WynnBET.

5. Martin Truex Jr. (Odds prediction: +1100 to +700)

Kansas Speedway proved to be a tale of an averted disaster for Martin Truex Jr. as well, and he also benefited greatly from the Blaney incident. And of course, now we head to Martin’s Ville — erm, Martinsville — with him just three points behind the cut line.

6. Ryan Blaney (Odds prediction: +500 to +750)

Blaney has been strong at Martinsville Speedway and is by no means out of it, but what should be at least a 30-point gap to the cut line is a one-point deficit thanks to the #3 Chevrolet of Austin Dillon. Sunday could be a true test to see how much momentum — or lack thereof — really matters at this stage in the season.

7. Brad Keselowski (Odds prediction: +1600 to +1400)

Brad Keselowski was another beneficiary of the incident involving his teammate, as he is just six points behind the cut line after a subpar afternoon at Kansas Speedway. Can he capitalize on his last chance as a Team Penske driver?

8. Joey Logano (Odds prediction: +2500 to +2800)

Joey Logano isn’t quite in a must-win situation, but that is probably what it will boil down to. Even with the aforementioned issues to his rivals, he still sits well below the Championship 4 cut line.

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